Thread - What Heraclitus Teaches Us About Strategy (1/) Some view the world as mechanistic & deterministic, in which the future unfolds inexorably from the present. By measurement & analysis, we can make accurate predictions & decide how to act to achieve the outcomes we prefer.

The problem is, this worldview isn't reflective of reality. In this worldview, there is no learning, no variety, no surprise. This worldview is wrong, and worse, it is harmful. But, in the words of Yoda: There is another. (2/x)

Maybe you've never heard of Heraclitus, unfairly maligned as “The Weeping Philosopher.” You've almost certainly heard his ideas, though. He made the quip about not being able to step into the same river twice & he's one of the oldest proponents of the other worldview. (3/x)

Heraclitus' ontology can be summarized by the phrase Panta Rhei (πάντα ῥεῖ), "everything flows." Before Socrates came along & 'carved reality by its joints,' Heraclitus saw the universe as being in a constant state of becoming, characterized by constant change, or, flow (4/x)

The world, then, is not one of simple cause & effect but is synergistic, emergent, & continually co-created. It's messy & unpredictable, but that's not the same thing as being chaotic. (5/x)

There are influencers, attractors, patterns, and periodic equilibria. The future is path-dependent. Our actions matter, but not much by themselves. Outcomes are contingent upon our actions flowing long with those of countless others. (6/x)

Anyways, you might be asking, what does this have to do with strategy, or intelligence, or foreign policy? Aren't you supposed to be an analyst? (7/x)

The point is that a recognition of the impermanence, mutability, and flow of events is a powerful - essential, I think - framework for making sense of the confusing, rapidly-changing world of the 21st-century, an epoch more alive with 'flow' than any other in human history. (8/x)

The reason things seem so unsettled today is that the human world has grown into a matrix of innumerable digital & physical connections, becoming a metasystem subject to compensating feedback in the form of delayed effects and unintended consequences. (9/x)

Despite living in an age of radical transparency, our systems are more opaque because we can’t easily determine how they are connected. Causes of specific events are emergent rather than explicit. Perturbances cascade, amplifying as they expand until reaching criticality (10/x)

When we realize that nothing is static, that everything we see and experience is in a constant state of flow, it allows us to step back and attempt to encompass the whole rather than narrowly fixating on myriad ephemeral details. (11/x)

It’s not that prediction is impossible and so we should throw our hands up and surrender – its that we should think holistically and leave ourselves room for adjustment when our predictions fail. (12/x)

I’ve written that intelligence is for helping policymakers make better decisions, but that’s too simple. Often there are no better decisions. The sorts of decisions policymakers (and business leaders) face are rarely black or white examples of right and wrong. (13/x)

More often they concern the margins of many seemingly equally good or bad options. Intelligence then becomes more about helping policymakers understand the implications of various contingent outcomes, and that's what strategy is, too. (14/x)

Change is a feature, not a bug. It leads to new states of stability that are better adapted to new conditions, though often through a process of creative destruction. We can't predict every emergent crisis, but we can remember to just go with the flow. (end)

This isn't just a Western idea. Before Heraclitus similar ideas emerged in the east. The Chandogya Upanishad (c. 900-800 BCE): "These rivers flow...they arise from the sea & flow into the sea...these rivers, whilst in the sea, do not know 'I am this river,' or 'I am that river.'"