*REPORT ALERT* This paper investigates the groups & economic sectors in Wales most significantly affected by the current pandemic. Workers in shutdown sectors account for 𝟏𝟓.𝟔% 𝐨𝐟 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠-𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐩𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, equating to around 𝟮𝟮𝟴,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 1/n

Social distancing & lock-down measures will negatively impact young employees the hardest, 36% of all employees under the age of 25 worked in shutdown sectors. Employees aged under 25 were 𝟮.𝟳 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀 as likely to work in a sector that is now shut down as other employees 2/n

The impact also varied by gender, with 𝟭𝟴% 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗲 employees working in shutdown sectors compared to 𝟭𝟰% 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗲 employees. In general, females are more likely to work in a sector that is currently shut down than men 3/n

Half of the lowest-earning decile of Welsh workers worked in shut down sectors of the economy. This made them 𝘁𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀 more likely to have been affected by the crisis compared with the highest-earning decile 4/n

Our results also show that workers of 𝗕𝗔𝗠𝗘 groups were significantly more likely to be working in shutdown sectors, have significantly lower average weekly pay relative to workers of white British ethnicity & exhibit substantial salary gaps by gender within ethnic groups 5/n

This negative shock caused by freezing the economy will increase 𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 across the income distribution, between men & women, between old & young, and among BAME groups. Policies that aim to mitigate the crisis should consider these impacts 6/n

We estimate that around 𝟰𝟰𝟲,𝟬𝟬𝟬 of employees in Wales were designated as 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 by the UK government at the onset of the crisis. Wales has a higher share of key workers (𝟯𝟭%) compared to the other nations and regions of the UK 7/n

𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 are disproportionately likely to be female, with employed 𝘄𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝘄𝗶𝗰𝗲 as likely to be in this group as employed men. In Wales, 𝟲𝟳.𝟵% of key workers are women, while 45.5% of workers outside this key sector are females 8/n

𝗕𝗔𝗠𝗘 groups are significantly more likely to be key workers, with a much higher share employed in the health & social care sectors. This greater exposure to the virus is particularly concerning as new evidence suggests BAME are facing greater health harms from covid-19 9/n

Data also indicates 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 face significant 𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 – half have school-aged children, while they were also more likely to have younger children below the age of 4 than non-key workers 10/n

Moreover, 𝗺𝗲𝗻 were 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 to suffer 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺𝘀 associated with a higher risk of severe illness if infected by Covid-19. These workers at higher risk were also more likely to work in shutdown sectors 11/n

Although key workers were less likely to suffer from such illnesses than non-key workers, 𝟭𝟬% of 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 had pre-existing medical conditions. These workers may also have been at greater risk of exposure to the virus at their place of work during the pandemic 12/n

Data also suggests that individuals of Black Caribbean & Bangladeshi ethnicity are more likely to report health conditions which put them at greater health risk from the virus. Such conditions are likely to be correlated with socio-economic characteristics of these groups 13/n

Access to the full document here @WalesGovernance : http://bit.ly/2Z4wsWx 

STATA replication files can be found here https://tinyurl.com/ycekoum6