1/ The dishonesty linking Victoria's rise in #covid19aus cases and #BLMprotest needs to stop NOW. It's being perpetrated by media/politicians and parroted by the public. The lies divide us at a time we need unity. Here are 2 big lies (LONG thread, why would you read this):

2/ Lie 1 - Protests caused transmission, facilitating current rise.
Fact - Only 4 cases are associated with protests. None yet causally linked by state/fed authorities. I don't think they're lying. Both LITERALLY TOLD PEOPLE TO NOT ATTEND PROTESTS & have no reason to cover up.

3/ This would be the PERFECT opportunity for them to say "i told you so". It would make their job easier. But they're sticking to the evidence.
Another argument supporting this lie - 'Maybe the protests DID cause spread that's not captured through testing' OK let's play:

4/ Assume there was spread, and protesters didn't get tested (btw they did - I served them at #covid19aus testing clinics). And because mostly younger protesters'll get few/no symptoms, we wouldn't see it's impact till much later when they transmit to older/sicker ppl, right?

5/ This argument serves to address the lack of evidence for the negative impact of protests so far. This argument is currently unfalsifiable - but that's a weakness of the argument, not a strength. But also consider the opposite case. Let's make an assumption for just 1 second:

8/ Let's assume that there was ZERO transmission at the #BLM protests. If this were true, what would we expect the data to show today? 0 connected cases. And 0 causually linked cases. What data do we have today? 4 linked, 0 causually linked. It's pretty damn close.

9/ A better question: what data truly WOULD satisfy people, today, that would make them believe that #BlackLivesMatterAustralia didn't set off this rise in cases in Vic? I'm not saying it's not possible. I'm it's disingenuous at this point to link them w/scant evidence. But:

10/ Did the protests 'send the wrong message' causing broader complacency? 'If 10,000 ppl can congregate, then I should be able to have 20 ppl over'. Although I don't know, yes- its possible. But can we see the problem is still the attitude/knowledge of people getting complacent?

11/ If so, I'm glad we are attributing accountability to everyone involved, not just the protesters. Interesting double standard here btw: The protesters are irresponsible. But people who 'got the wrong message' seen as hapless idiots obeying cues like the Manchurian Candidate.

12/ These people, who apparently got the wrong message, presumably also saw the widespread use of masks? So did the protests have a positive effect on awareness too? While we're going to speculate in the absence of evidence, let's consider that too. Next lie:

12/ Lie 2 is that the Victorian government essentially gave the protests a green light. This is ridiculous on many levels. Firstly, both @VictorianCHO and @DanielAndrewsMP told people MULTIPLE times to NOT ATTEND THE PROTESTS. Warning it was high risk and could set us back.

13/ People are interpreting these statements as tacit support because the protests still happened. They should have stopped them at all costs, right?
People forget the anarchic fury of #BlackLivesMatter riots in USA that catalyzed global protests in the first place.

14/ There were both riots and peaceful protests. And the American police made the ingenious decision to respond to a movement against police brutality by responding with... police brutality. Things got much worse. In view of this case study, what should Aus authorities have done?

15/ Should they've used pepper spray? Fire hose? Arrest thousands of people to give fines? The atmosphere was potentially combustible. What would crowd chaos do to #covid19aus transmission? To physically enforce against #BlackLivesMatter protests would have been dangerous.

16/ Not to mention a double standard - 5G/antivax protesters were not shut down. And the medical/health community, who have arguably the most right to be enraged by these *lunatics* did not call for them to be shut either. Because we understand backfire, harm minimisation, and..

17/ Many of us also understand the ethical problem with banning protests, even ones we think could be harmful. Anyway, back to the cause of the rise in #covid19vic: CHO and premier have said repeatedly that it's transmission in/between families.

18/ We have a plausible, provable explanation from health authorities re: #covid19 rise. Instead disingenuous blame of #BlackLivesMatter protests continues. It achieves nothing. It's divides people, plays off state vs state and the two levels of government. We must move forward.