A left wing group based in Madison, WI, @EXPOSEDbyCMD, paid for a press release today to criticize some of our #Texas #COVID19 analysis. Their main criticism was that "deaths can lag hospitalizations by several weeks or more..." @TPPF 1/9

Let’s explore @apearson15’s charge. In New York City, America’s COVID epicenter, at their #COVID19 peak, the apparent lag between hospital admissions and death was 6-9 days, not (“several weeks or more”). (See: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page) 2/9

But there are even larger statistical challenges between looking at the Northeast and comparing it to Texas. First, Texas @GovAbbott didn’t repeat the mistake of @NYGovCuomo, going against federal guidance and placing COVID positive seniors in nursing homes. 3/9

Second, it’s hard to compare $Texas with early onset states like New York and New Jersey as their per capita fatality rates were more than 20 times higher than in Texas. 4/9

As an example, New York City, with less than 1/3 of Texas’ population, saw 584 COVID deaths on April 7. Texas worst day of loss was 1/10th that of New York City’s – with more than 3 times the population. 5/9

Thankfully, Texas’ low death rate – so far – leads to a certain statistical choppiness that was not a feature of NYC where 17,657 people have lost their lives to #COVID compared to 2,220 in all of Texas – with more than 3 times the population of NYC. 6/9

To put this into perspective, #Texas would have to lose 60,600 people to #COVID to rival New York City’s per capita fatality rate, some 27 times #Texas' fatalities so far. 7/9

But that’s not at all likely to happen. #Texas has the fortune to learn from the mistakes of early-onset states like New York. Medical treatments have improved, our knowledge of the virus has grown, and @GovAbbott won’t repeat @NYGovCuomo's fatal mistakes. 9/8

Though @GovAbbott won’t likely get credit for it. And folks like Arn Pearson @apearson15 will remain free to lob criticisms at #Texas while spreading fear - and remain curiously silent on the progressive bastion of New York & their deadly #COVID failures. 9/9