1/10: So, it’s four years since the #Brexit referendum. We have formally left the #EU but remain in the single market & customs union until 31 December. The future relationship beyond that is still unknown. What are the chances of a deal before the deadline? A thread...

2/10: Negotiators have just 4 months left. It will take two more after that for a deal to be ratified. If there is a deal the scope will be narrow; aiming for tariff-free & quota-free trade in goods. Little on services, never mind non-trade issues. A hard version of #Brexit.

3/10: UK insists a deal must not limit “sovereignty” or leave jurisdiction with the ECJ. It has proposed a series of deals built around a free trade agreement that would involve widespread removal of traditional trade barriers, but far short of the promised “frictionless trade”.

4/10: EU remain bemused by what they see as UK economic self harm. They are focused on #Covid recovery & other issues like the EU budget & migration. They want a deal but there seems to be less urgency this time than there was for the Withdrawal Agreement last year.

5/10: There are three main blockages: the so-called level playing field rules for economic & trade relations, the legal governance of the agreement, & fish. On all three both sides will need to make concessions for a deal to be reached.

6/10: On level playing field both sides are taking a maximalist position. UK knows #EU will need binding commitments not to back-track on current competition rules, state aid & labour rights. EU knows its demand for ongoing UK alignment with future EU regulations will not fly.

7/10: On governance UK wants maximum freedom & minimum intrusion, with no ECJ. EU wants a single agreement that allows cross retaliation in the event of a breach. Architecture may be fixed (overarching Association Agreement) but compliance & dispute settlement are tough nuts.

8/10: #Fish is economically irrelevant but politically totemic. UK asserts its right as a “coastal state” to negotiate quotas each year outside an FTA. EU says existing quotas must be retained within an FTA. In the end EU should show flex here, but only as part of a wider deal.

9/10: The deal is thin but no deal is worse. The argument that it’s all irrelevant given #Covid damage is false. With no deal, EU may enforce border controls from Jan. Sectors hit hard by no deal will differ from those hit by Covid. No deal means uncertainty for services.

10/10: The obstacles are huge but the odds still narrowly favour a deal: 55/45? The landing zone is visible if political will exists. Both sides prefer a deal & consequences of failure are serious. Can Boris face down the no-dealers? As always with #Brexit it will go to the wire.