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Did not realize the AckSPAC would be filing its S-1 yesterday: https://twitter.com/ShortSightedCap/status/1275063963831721984?s=20
It turns out the one thing I thought was known (the $1b size) was wrong.
It's a $3b SPAC, up to $3.45b with the over-allotment... and comes with a forward purchase agreement for another $1 - $3b.
We're not hunting elephants anymore - we're going whaling, and Bill is Ahab.
We're not hunting elephants anymore - we're going whaling, and Bill is Ahab.
Some thoughts on the S-1.
1) $20 is adorable. It's twice as good as $10! (cc Retail Investors)
2) Tontine warrants? Somebody is a fan of financial history! (and / or recalls Buffett's early fascination with Tontines) (for background on Tontines: https://twitter.com/cablecarcapital/status/1275131702117937154?s=20 )
And it's a pretty decent description: with every unit, you get 1/9th of a detachable warrant. These warrants become tradeable 52 days after the offering.
But holders who do not redeem their shares at the time of the combination get another 2/9ths of a warrant (the Tontine Redeemable Warrant). Plus the pro-rata shares of anyone who redeems.
3) The promote seems limited to the founder warrants (capped at 5.95% dilution, purchased by the sponsor for an estimated $45m).
And, of course, the forward purchasers (Pershing Square entities) don't have their money tied up in a cash equivalent while waiting for a deal.
. @YellowLabLife makes some great points here: https://twitter.com/YellowLabLife/status/1275465675448954882
There is no natural holder for this investment. The tontine structure means that this is less appealing to traditional SPAC buyers.
And I'm not sure large LOs are willing to give Bill a cheap loan for up to 2 years to execute a transaction...
And I'm not sure large LOs are willing to give Bill a cheap loan for up to 2 years to execute a transaction...
As @YellowLabLife notes, SPACkman might need some retail interest.
The size also significantly narrows the universe of targets.
The size also significantly narrows the universe of targets.
The S-1 mentions "private, large capitalization, high-quality, growth companies" and "mature unicorns"
So I'm adjusting my totally speculative target list.
JAB's Coffee business makes the list, as does their Pret-Panera company. Endeavor, Caliber Collision, and Nets too.
JAB's Coffee business makes the list, as does their Pret-Panera company. Endeavor, Caliber Collision, and Nets too.
Again, maybe Ackman buys some PE-backed software co (Ultimate Software? Informatica? trying to think of the other large PE acqs)... but I'd be surprised. It's not the space he's most comfortable in.
Stripe? I don't think they'd do it... but I could be surprised. Doesn't sound like they are in a rush to go public. And, if they were really *that* opposed to a traditional IPO, maybe they'd consider a direct listing. Or even Chamath's SPAC.
AirBnB? The timing could be better, even for a negotiated transaction.
And I assume they have adequate liquidity after their recent raise: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/airbnb-raises-another-1-billion-in-debt.html
And I assume they have adequate liquidity after their recent raise: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/airbnb-raises-another-1-billion-in-debt.html
Palantir would just be... weird, based on what little I know about the company. Probably not DoorDash (industry structure)... maybe Instacart? Although grocery delivery isn't easy either...
I don't think he's going to India / China...
I don't think he's going to India / China...
But if you really want retail hype... if you really want CNBC buzz... do I dare say it?
SpaceX
SpaceX
Just to throw more fuel on this totally unfounded (and honestly unlikely) theory - Ackman has been rather complimentary towards Musk: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-enormous-respect-tesla-ceo-elon-musk-2020-4-1029143572
And then there was this: https://twitter.com/billackman/status/1263528252502609922?lang=en
I have no idea how Bill Ackman would square SpaceX with his new business principles... but it would be fun.
And, critically, it's fun to speculate about this. People tweeting about his SPAC and generating buzz is a nice bonus for Bill.
And, critically, it's fun to speculate about this. People tweeting about his SPAC and generating buzz is a nice bonus for Bill.
