Here it is! A short thread on the effect of empty stadiums, the loss of the home advantage, and what this will mean for the Premier League and FPL - from the POV of an MSc Sport Psychology Graduate. Please retweet if you found interesting or useful! #FPLCommunity #FPL #VAR

1) It is important to understand the IMPORTANCE OF HOME ADVANTAGE. Home win percentage in the Premier League this season is 44% compared to 30% away from home ( http://footystats.org ).

2) Indeed, a statistical analysis of over 5,000 Premier League Games Boyko (2006) showed that for every 10,000 home fans, home advantage increased by 0.86 goals! That is a big advantage! So why is there a 14% improvement and 0.86 goal improvement at home?

3a) The effect of home crowed on OFFICIATING BIAS. Between 1992 and 2014, out of the 1666 penalties awarded in the Premier League, 63% were awarded to home teams (Boyko, 2006), expected to be due to crowd pressure. Whilst VAR will help reduce this bias, it will not eradicate it..

3b) Further with regard to officiating bias, Downward and Jones (2007) explored six seasons in the FA Cup, and found that significantly less yellow and red cards were awarded to home teams, and this was correlated with crowd size. The home crowd heavily influence the officials!

4) Crowd SIZE and home advantage. Goumas (2013) demonstrated a correlation between home crowd size and win rate, with larger crowed sizes resulting in a 1.5% to 10% increase in win rate across four continents. However, in Europe, there was a plateau at 42,000.

5) The influence of home advantage on OPPOSITION PLAYERS. Greer (1983) demonstrated in an experimental design that home spectator booing of the opposition led to significantly more fouls, violations, and mistakes from the away team! Home advantage directly hurts the away team!

6a) The effect of home advantage on PLAYERS and MOMENTUM SHIFTS. In sport, and football in particular, there are 'Momentum Shifts'. These occur when a game flips on it's head, and within minutes the team that were winning are now losing...

6b) Evidence from Jones and Harwood (2008) suggests that players utilise home advantage and crowd support as a cue for extra exertions of effort and determination that are required to shift a game in your favour, especially in late-game situations...

6c) Therefore, I believe that as a result of the empty stadiums, we MAY see slightly less impressive comebacks, especially late on in games, due to the absence of the crowd! However, this is my own hypothesis!

7) Conclusion - I believe that as a result of the empty stadiums we will see the home advantage essentially nullified. This will result in: a) less officiating bias toward the home team; b) better decision-making and less mistakes from away team players; c) less momentum shifts!

8) What will this mean for FPL? If big teams are winning by two goals or more at 55-65 mins, the empty stadiums will reduce the likelihood of a momentum shift and as a result, managers will feel safer rotating their side. In other words, prepare for 59 minute cameos!

9) Whilst there are still some advantages of playing at home (i.e. less travel, familiar surroundings), HOME vs. AWAY fixtures are less (and I'm emphasising 'less') important when considering fixture difficulty and captain choices!

10) Important caveats here: a) I am just hypothesising based on my knowledge and research, I could be completely wrong! b) the home advantage will likely be reduced, but it will not be completely removed. I hope you all enjoyed this thread! I am happy to answer any questions!