I'll be releasing the predictions for the entire #UFCVegas4 fight card later this week, but I thought I'd share some analysis on the main event. The model has hooker as a slight favorite, which is not reflective of the current betting line of +170/-210 in favor of Poirier.

Hooker is 7-1 in his last 8 fights and undoubtedly an elite fighter, but I feel the model is undervaluing Poirier because of his recent loss to Khabib. Khabib dominated the fight and resulted in Poirier's rolling average of key performance metrics to tank.

This chart shows his 5 fight rolling average of Significant Strikes Landed For Per Minute (SSLFPM) and Significant Strikes Landed Against Per Minute (SSLAPM) before and after his fight with Khabib. The change is noticeable and gives Hooker a decent edge.

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