1/ I& #39;ve been investing for 22 years, and I& #39;ve never seen irrational exuberance and false hope around equities like we& #39;re experiencing right now. Over the past few weeks, many people who I& #39;ve followed my entire investing life have gone bonkers, jumping on the bandwagon.
2/ It& #39;s ironic that this is all coming at the point in time when the US economy is the worst it& #39;s been in my lifetime. Reality is being ignored, and seemingly just about everyone is investing based on faith and hope. Faith and hope are for religion, not business.
3/ So many people believe in "Don& #39;t fight the Fed" at a time where the Fed has zero ability to fix any of the issues that plague the economy and dampen the outlook for risk assets. It& #39;s also a time where we have the least qualified and least competent Fed Chair in history.
4/ So, just so I can sleep well tonight knowing I tried my best, here is a list of all of the issues facing us right now of which the Fed has zero control:
5/ Insolvency - personal, corporate, and sovereign - on a scale the world has never seen.

Demographics - an aging Boomer population who owns most of the country& #39;s assets leaving the workforce in droves.

Political and civil unrest leading to protesting and riots in the streets
6/ Trade conflict with the US& #39; largest trading partner, China

Global supply chain disruption

Collapsing emerging markets all over the world

Corporate profits cratering to levels lower than during the GFC
7/ An upcoming election that will likely result in the most left-leaning government the US has seen since the 1940& #39;s. Higher corporate taxes, more corporate and environmental regulations are a guarantee.
8/ Unemployment at the highest level in modern American history.

Real estate - both commercial and residential - ready to absolutely implode as 106 million loans across the country are delinquent.
9/ Global unrest with conflicts pitting two nuclear powers (China & India), a resurgent North Korea, and unending wars in the Middle East.
10/ And finally, COVID-19. Unless the Fed can find a way to cure this disease, consumer confidence and uncertainty for businesses will continue to pound the global economy.
11/ In closing, I don& #39;t want to be bearish. I want 5% annual GDP growth and stocks to soar as a result. But that isn& #39;t our reality. I& #39;d rather invest my money safely in other areas and rely on my own ingenuity than be a drug addict begging Daddy Jerome for my next fix.
12/ Because eventually that fix either isn& #39;t going to come or it& #39;s going to be laced with Fentanyl and the whole system is going to die.
You can follow @realJosephRich.
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