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Let's talk about "regressing" a little bit and a really nice variable to help identify true regression candidates: WOPR or Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR measures a WRs opportunity relative to his team and has a nice correlation to Fantasy Points. #Thread 
WOPR is composed of Target share and AirYards market share... that's it... and it accounts for about 85% of the variance in Fantasy points. @friscojosh made it and this article explains it a bit (also lol at the AAF) https://noextrapoints.com/air-yards-and-other-metrics
Why does this matter? Well, if we can assume or predict WOPR, we can basically assume or predict FP. The graph below is 2019 WOPR vs 2019 FP on passing plays. *Assuming* similar or better WOPR, a few players really stand out for positive regression: *The players below the line*
However, the counter is also true. Players may outperform their WOPR in a given year (players above the line). These players are *likely* to have negative regression ***IF they receive the same WOPR***
The important thing to remember when people speak of "regression" in a year-to-year or week-to-week context is that we are assuming the same levels of opportunity. If for instance Godwin's WOPR increases enough, he will be fine. If his WOPR stays constant, I got bad news
WOPR Positive Regression Candidates:
- Courtland Sutton
- Odell Beckham
- Stefon Diggs
- John Brown
- Robby Anderson
- Christian Kirk
- James Washington
- Corey Davis (lol he was on the list last year too)
Negative Candidates:
- Austin Ekeler
- CMC
- Chris Godwin
- Cooper Kupp
- Courtland Sutton
- Odell Beckham
- Stefon Diggs
- John Brown
- Robby Anderson
- Christian Kirk
- James Washington
- Corey Davis (lol he was on the list last year too)
Negative Candidates:
- Austin Ekeler
- CMC
- Chris Godwin
- Cooper Kupp
