This is happening

Diontae Johnson vs James Washington

Will do my best to make this thread unbiased, get ready for some stats. Let's look at who's going to be playing next to Juju this year with a healthy Big Ben. #FantasyFootball

Let's start with the Measurables:

DJ - 5' 10" 183 lbs, 4.53 40, 9.7 Catch Radius

JW - 5' 11" 213lbs, 4.54 40, 9.87 Catch Radius

Not much difference here outside of the weight, so a slight advantage to Washington for the BMI folks.

College:

DJ (Toledo) - 34% Dominator, 16.4 YPR, 25.3% Target Share, 20.8 Breakout Age

JW (Ok. St.) - 33.3% Dominator, 20.2 YPR, 28.1% Target Share, 18.4 Breakout Age

Draft Capital:

DJ - 3.02

JW - 2.28

College resume will lean towards Washington, but draft capital is equal

No need to compare Washington's less-than-stellar rookie season to Diontae's so let's compare Johnson's 1st year with Washington's 2nd year. This will give us equal footing for outside factors, i.e. no Antonio Brown, catching passes from Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, etc.

2019 Stats:

Johnson - 92 Tgt, 59 Rec, 680 Yards, 11.5 YpC, 5 TDs

Washington - 80 Tgt, 44 Rec, 735 Yards, 16.7 YpC, 3 TDs

PPR Fantasy Points:

DJ - 157.1, 9.8 PPG

JW - 133.5, 8.9 PPG

Still pretty close.

Let's really start to dig in here, let's go beyond the box score.

These two players are used quite differently, Johnson is a crafty route runner who is used near the first down marker while Washington is used as a down field threat and field stretcher.

Johnson - 4.2 Air Yards per Target

Washington - 7 Air Yards per Target

Meanwhile...

Johnson - 5.2 Yards After Catch per Reception

Washington - 4.6 Yards After Catch per Reception

So similar in YaC numbers despite what you assume would be more room for Washington downfield.

This is due to the fact that despite Washington getting down the field he only averaged 1.2 Yards of Separation per Target. Johnson led the 2019 rookie class AND the league with 2.39 Yards of Separation per Target. That is higher than any player in the last three years.

Due to the nature of their route running and usage on the field, we see a correlation with TDs. Long downfield TDs are fun for the highlights but are less reliable.

Johnson had 7 RZ targets in 2019, while Washington only had 2.

Remember, Johnson (5 TDs) & Washington (3 TDs)

To continue that thought of consistency vs Boom/Bust, let's look at both players' median points per game. This helps eliminate outliers.

DJ - 8.55 PPR FP

JW - 7.9 PPR FP

Washington had two games of 0 FP (Week 4 & 17) while Johnson's lowest game was 1.5 FP in Week 9.

One thing that Washington does much better than Johnson is catch contested balls.

DJ - 1/6 16.7%

JW - 9/16 56.2%

This goes well with their style of play as Washington is more likely to have to fight for his catches when thrown down the field, especially by Mason Rudolph.

As we've already hit on multiple times, Washington does a lot of work down the field and that shows in his Yards per Reception. If we break it down further though that efficiency gets a lot closer.

DJ - 1.96 Yards per Route

JW - 2.1 Yards per Route

Much more similar numbers.

That's enough 2019 stats, though I will remind you that we compared Johnson's rookie year to Washington's sophomore year.

Let's start looking ahead to 2020, because that is what actually matters for us now.

Fun Fact: According to @gerrydulac, Pitt had 1st-rd grade on Johnson

In 2020, Juju will be more utilized in the slot. Chase Claypool was drafted to play outside. Where does that put Diontae and James? Let's look at where they lined up (I'm sorry I just said let's move on from 2019, but bear with me).

Stats:

DJ - 74.3% Outside, 23.9% Slot

JW - 46.1% Outside, 39.7% Slot

Efficiency?

DJ - Outside: 22.7 FP/100 snaps, Slot: 27.6 FP/110 snaps

JW - Outside: 21.8 FP/100 snaps, Slot: 27.1 FP/100 snaps

Pretty even here efficiency-wise, but obviously Johnson is used more outside.

If Juju is taking the majority of slot snaps in 2020, there will be opportunity on the outside. As of right now we can predict that the pecking order for that spot will be Johnson, Washington, Claypool.

In 4-WR sets, Juju and Washington are likely to be exclusive to the slot.

At the end of the day, it's a close one. But Johnson quietly had one of the most efficient rookie seasons we've ever seen. Moving forward I expect Johnson to take over the WR2 role on the Steelers and Washington to be fighting Claypool for the WR3 snaps.

Extra Credit: Crucify me for this one but look at this comparison.

Player A - Known for his route running

Measurables:
5' 10" 186 lbs.
4.56 40 Yard Dash
82.5 Speed Score
9.83 Catch Radius

2018 Stats:
7.7 YpT
12.5 YpR
10.9 aDoT
5.1 Air Yards/Target
17.9% Contested Catch Rate

Diontae Johnson - Also known for his route running

Measurables:
5' 10" 183 lbs.
4.53 40 Yard Dash
83.3 Speed Score
9.70 Catch Radius

2019 Stats:
7.4 YpT
11.5 YpR
9.1 aDoT
4.2 Air Yards/Target
16.7% Contested Catch Rate

Who is Player A?