/1 There seems to be a surprisingly high number of people (with strong feelings on the subject) who do not realise the UK has left the EU. Art 50 cannot be revoked. The only way *back in* now is via Art 49 TEU, and that is (sadly) a very remote possibility for two reasons:

/2 Firstly, there’s no appetite for re-joining from what I can tell and none of the major parties will touch it for quite understandable reasons. It will probably be at least a decade before it can become a serious position, unless there’s a serious change of mood.

/3 A poll showing 56% are in favour of the ‘remain’ position (as well as being badly worded) is not evidence of a sufficient change in public mood nor does its suggest that the issue is of any real salience to those people. Let’s face it, it is likely well down the pecking order.

/4 Secondly, Art 49 requires that the EU’s Member States agree unanimously to the accession of the candidate state. Would a reasonable person expect all 27 MS to agree to the UK’s re-entry given what has transpired? Would you really hold it against a State that said ‘non’?

/5 So, again, an appreciable amount of time will have to pass before the EU’s MS could entertain the possibility of the UK re-joining and even then there would likely be significant opposition, given the prior experience and a perception of the UK as an obstacle.

/6 Again, there would have to be evidence of something like a societal consensus in a favour of membership and of a clear commitment to membership, something that would be difficult to convince some MS of (understandably).

/7 Ultimately the two reasons are connected, but I think the second may prove even more problematic. I say this as someone who believes passionately in the UK’s position in the EU, but realities have to be recognised. So what should be done?

/8 Well, the UK’s relationship with the EU will remain a major political fault line, whether directly or through proxy issues. Pro-EU figures should be seeking the closest possible relationship with the EU and fighting elections on this basis, whether explicitly or impliedly.

/9 This, if electorally successful, could allow for the pursuit of greater economic integration with the EU, and thereby limit - to some extent - the economic harm caused by Brexit. In terms of re-joining it could have one of two outcomes though:

/10 One possibility is that such an arrangement with the EU (an association agreement, for instance) might quell any calls to re-join, given that it would be an acceptable compromise in the UK (especially given the trauma of Brexit). Why rock the boat?

/11 Alternatively, it might prepare the ground for eventually re-joining, both economically and politically.

This might be the case, but from where I am standing, I would say the first is more likely.

/12 So, unfortunately, the most likely and realistic best-case scenario for remainers/rejoiners (certainly in the medium term) is something like an association agreement which might replicate as many of the benefits of the Single Market as possible.

/13 To end this rambling thread: this is how I see things now, when there are many known unknowns and probably way more unknown unknowns. This is me trying to set aside my feelings on the subject (which are remainier than thou) and trying to look at it pragmatically. /END