Let's just break down the utter nonsensical shit that's going on with $DKNG stock today. It's time for another Silent Bob screed. (1)

The stock was up this morning because a Jefferies analyst said the company is in the initial stage of a "decade-long acceleration" for a market that is projected to reach $19 billion by 2023-2025. And they're best positioned to capitalize. (2)

Now with rumors that CA may pull their sports betting bill because tribes are pissed off about has the stock tanking. We all good here? (3)

Now, is $DKNG in a good position for growth? Yes.....with some big caveats. 1/3 of the US market is CA, NY, and TX. Let me tell you right now, that NY is almost certainly not going mobile until Cuomo is no longer governor. He HATES online gaming. He his term ends in 2023 (4)

CA is nearly as problematic. Tribes are extremely powerful in CA. It's hard to get anything past them. You can, but you need a ton of legislative support to accomplish that, and again with their $ and political sway, it's very hard. (5)

Like for example FL is controlled by the Seminoles. You will NEVER see anything passed for sports betting or online casino in FL that the Seminoles don't control entirely themselves. (6)

CA isn't at the same level as FL, because it's not a tribal monopoly, but it presents similar challenges. If the tribes don't like something, or it isn't done their way, it's almost always game over. You either have to splinter them or get something they like (usually). (7)

And lastly TX. Don't even get me started on TX. Some dumbass analyst at Morgan Stanley said TX could open to sports betting in 2021. Analysts don't spend a lot of time in state legislatures. I will bet my life that you will not see sports betting in TX in 2021 (8)

I mean TX is in the "I hope I see it in my lifetime" list. So what's my point? My point is that if you're buying $DKNG on your hope that big states like CA open soon, get ready to be disappointed. But that's not all...(9)

If you're trading on upside, and states are unlikely to open soon, and we're in a pandemic that ISN'T receding, what the fuck are you doing? I had thread on Friday about how any gambling firm should be really nervous right now. You can read it here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1274093752416698368.html (10)

$DKNG missed its last revenue targets even with COVID baked in. It's trading at 39x revenue. People are looking past COVID. But I mean, should we be? Imagine a world - which seems increasingly likely - of no sports for a year. And CA, NY, TX not opening for YEARS (11)

Or every limited sports, is probably more accurate. That's a difficult spot to be in. And it's not just $DKNG, it's plenty of other companies. But all of these swings seem much more pronounced with $DKNG. (12)

The point is that analysts are brushing over the bad outcomes. So I'll spell it out for you. If you're buying $DKNG or $PENN or any of the US sports betting stocks (which is really just those) here are the two things you're speculating on........ (13)

1. That a lot of states keep opening, especially the BIG states 2. That we get back to a normal pre-pandemic state relatively quickly

Those are both big bets to make. Why? (14)

1. Because states don't open just like that. Analysts who are like oh states will need money post-COVID! They'll do sports betting? Guess who could give two fucks about that: Tribes. They're not there to help states, they're there to help themselves. (15)

And that's a situation you'll get into only after the state legislature can even come to the conclusion that they even WANT to do sports betting. You get to avoid the tribal step if your state doesn't have tribes, but many other special interests can take their role. (16)

2. Now we're on COVID. There is literally no news coming out right now that suggests COVID is going away soon. LSU's football team is 25% positive at present. The MLB season is slipping away, and does anyone want to tell me how the NFL will keep 3000+ staff uninfected? (17)

Again, I already tweeted about the COVID problem late last week. No one wants to say it, but it's fucking there. And imagine a business that has a huge revenue hole or one that's 20% of normal for a year, or two! That's pretty scary. (18)

It's just funny to me that CA is what suddenly makes people scared about $DKNG stock for a moment. Really? That's what scares you? Not their 39x revenue valuation? Not the fact that they widely missed revenue targets? That COVID probably will linger for a long time? (19)

I'm not anti-$DKNG. I do think second to Flutter they're probably the best bet in the US for eventual market share. Although I must admit it's bizarre how analysts seem to forget Flutter exists which has a more diverse portfolio, is profitable, and is taking no prisoners. (20)

But what I am saying is that the valuation, how people are trading $DKNG (and other stocks like $PENN) is honestly nuts. It is literally the definition of speculative trading. It's like paying for $DKNG stock 3 years now.....right now. And that's the definition of dangerous (21)

You're betting a lot on everything going right. And trust me, nothing in this fucking industry ever goes right. I mean I haven't even gotten into what state regulators could do to fuck things up. But that won't matter to investors (although it should). But for now.....Fin. (22)