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I recently hypothesized on the @rideordynasty pod that Chris Herndon would finish as TE5 in fantasy. 
That may be a bit of hyperbole, but let's take a look at why you should be adding Chris Herndon in anyway possible. 1/18
That may be a bit of hyperbole, but let's take a look at why you should be adding Chris Herndon in anyway possible. 1/18
Let's look at the 2018 rookie TE Class
1: Hurst
2: Gesicki, Goedert
3: Mark Andrews, Jordan Akins
4: Ian Thomas, Chris Herndon, Will Dissly, Durham Smythe, Dalton Shultz
5: Jake Butt, Jordan Leggett, Tyler Conklin
6: Jordan Thomas, Rico Gathers
7: Mason Schreck
2/18
1: Hurst
2: Gesicki, Goedert
3: Mark Andrews, Jordan Akins
4: Ian Thomas, Chris Herndon, Will Dissly, Durham Smythe, Dalton Shultz
5: Jake Butt, Jordan Leggett, Tyler Conklin
6: Jordan Thomas, Rico Gathers
7: Mason Schreck
2/18
That is a great group of TEs with 3 inside the top 12 in most current dynasty rankings.
Let's take a look at their production in 2018... 3/18
Let's take a look at their production in 2018... 3/18
Herndon finished 1st in Targets & Receptions, 2nd in Yards and tied for 1st in TDs.
Leading the fantastic four of Chris Herndon, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, & Ian Thomas.
Overall, Herndon & Andrews finished as TE16 and TE17, Goedert was TE20, & Thomas finished as TE24. 4/18
Leading the fantastic four of Chris Herndon, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, & Ian Thomas.
Overall, Herndon & Andrews finished as TE16 and TE17, Goedert was TE20, & Thomas finished as TE24. 4/18
What happened in 2019? 5/18
Andrews, Goedert, & Gesicki continued to improve & finished the season as TE1s.
Ian Thomas dropped out of the top 50.
Chris Herndon? Well, he was suspended for four games, injured a hamstring, came back for 1 game in which he broke ribs and was placed on IR.
6/18
Ian Thomas dropped out of the top 50.
Chris Herndon? Well, he was suspended for four games, injured a hamstring, came back for 1 game in which he broke ribs and was placed on IR.
6/18
Fast forward to 2020. Where are these players being ranked?
Andrews is TE3
Goedert is TE10
Gesicki is TE12
Ian Thomas is TE26
Herndon is TE29.
Why so low for Herndon? 7/18
Andrews is TE3
Goedert is TE10
Gesicki is TE12
Ian Thomas is TE26
Herndon is TE29.
Why so low for Herndon? 7/18
A few reasons...
Adam Gase is a horrible coach. 8/18
Adam Gase is a horrible coach. 8/18
Gase's only TE to finish in the top 20 was Julius Thomas, and that was more Manning than Gase.
The TE1 and TE2 on an Adam Gase offense average a combined 80 targets per season.
It will be difficult to break into the top tier of TEs if you aren't being thrown the ball. 9/18
The TE1 and TE2 on an Adam Gase offense average a combined 80 targets per season.
It will be difficult to break into the top tier of TEs if you aren't being thrown the ball. 9/18
They say... It isn't that Herndon is worse, it is that the players around him got better.
Waller broke into the top 10. Hooper & Higbee are hot targets for managers.
Fant & Hockenson are ascending talents.
Ian Thomas and Jonnu Smith saw their TE1s leave the team. 10/18
Waller broke into the top 10. Hooper & Higbee are hot targets for managers.
Fant & Hockenson are ascending talents.
Ian Thomas and Jonnu Smith saw their TE1s leave the team. 10/18
They say, "There is a lot of movement in the position tier and (they say) there isn't any room at the inn for Chris Herndon."
Alright, those are solid points.
However, I would like to offer a few counterpoints... 11/18
Alright, those are solid points.
However, I would like to offer a few counterpoints... 11/18
Gase will not be the coach of the Jets next year unless the team makes the playoffs.
Either way, the whole offense will be in a better place.
Darnold just turned 23 & had great rapport with Herndon as rookies.
When Gase has a good TE, he targets them more frequently. 12/18
Either way, the whole offense will be in a better place.
Darnold just turned 23 & had great rapport with Herndon as rookies.
When Gase has a good TE, he targets them more frequently. 12/18
No Room at the Inn?
Hope springs eternal and everyone thinks that nobody will get worse. Well, players do fall off.
Let's look at who might be leaving the top 12... 13/18
Hope springs eternal and everyone thinks that nobody will get worse. Well, players do fall off.
Let's look at who might be leaving the top 12... 13/18
Waller: 117 targets on a team that needed WR help. They added Ruggs, Edwards, & Bowden.
Witten: Father time is undefeated.
Henry: New QB, & Taylor is not great over the middle.
Engram: Always hurt, Kaden Smith flashed in his absence. 14/18
Witten: Father time is undefeated.
Henry: New QB, & Taylor is not great over the middle.
Engram: Always hurt, Kaden Smith flashed in his absence. 14/18
Tandems that may hurt each other:
Ertz & Goedert: 222 Targets in 2019 was an outlier due to injuries. As that number drops, they may canabalize each other's numbers.
Higbee & Everett: Higbee shined after Everett was injured, do they split targets. 15/18
Ertz & Goedert: 222 Targets in 2019 was an outlier due to injuries. As that number drops, they may canabalize each other's numbers.
Higbee & Everett: Higbee shined after Everett was injured, do they split targets. 15/18
Fant & Albert O: Rumors of Fant's work ethic not being up to par, lots of weapons.
I am not saying these things will happen, but they are reasonable outcomes despite our fandom. 16/18
I am not saying these things will happen, but they are reasonable outcomes despite our fandom. 16/18
Let's look at current MFL ADP for that original group of TEs
AndrewsTE3 36
HurstTE12 107
GoedertTE14 118
GesickiTE15 119
I.Thomas TE20 157
HerndonTE22 175
17/18
AndrewsTE3 36
HurstTE12 107
GoedertTE14 118
GesickiTE15 119
I.Thomas TE20 157
HerndonTE22 175
17/18
Do I think that Herndon should be drafted top 5? No
How about top 12? Maybe.
But in a startup, he will be available at TE16, which is where you grab him.
The upside & value is there for a top TE finish in '20, w/ a bright future in a post-Gase world. 18/18
How about top 12? Maybe.
But in a startup, he will be available at TE16, which is where you grab him.
The upside & value is there for a top TE finish in '20, w/ a bright future in a post-Gase world. 18/18
