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THREAD: Had another look at the information provided by @VTV_fi and the #HXhanke project office over operations and maintenance, and one stark issue has popped up - planned annual spend is €250 m (or €270 m for @VTV_fi). A thread on #HX and #F35. Pic via @usairforce 1/n
. @DefenceFinland made the number of a/c being procured classified a while ago, understandable. But let's take a look at #Denmark's recent experience with @LockheedMartin @thef35.
According to this report by @uni_copenhagen, the TLS costs on just 27 #F35 are going to be €7.64 billion over 30 years. https://cms.polsci.ku.dk/publikationer/integrating-the-f-35-into-danish-defence/download-cms-report/CMS_Report_2018__5_-_Integrating_the_F-35_into_Danish_Defence.pdf
Any additional aircraft would cost €283 million over 30 years. On top of that, 6 aircraft of #Denmark's 27 are going to be based in the #US for training purposes anyway, so effective fleet is 21.
Yes, of course there are a lot of factors at play here - which Lot was bought into, ALIS v ODIN, etc etc etc. To me though, it's the bigger numbers that are the issue. Only 27 aircraft have chewed up a significant part of what the #HXhanke requirement would be for O&M spending.
For #Finland, this means either a significant cutting of airframe numbers on the promise that it will meet requirements - and availability issues didn't go down well during #HXChallenge
It would also mean a change in force structure, and the larger support chain behind it - intelligence, logistics, etc. The smaller number of aircraft would probably also get used more heavily, increasing the maintenance bill.
The smaller "presence" may not work well with #Finland's defence concept, either in theory or in practice. While foreign deployment isn't as big a concept as it is for the #UK, #Australia, #US, etc, maintaining a dispersable, sizeable fleet at home is important.
Just remembered something in a teeth-brushing moment. €2 billion is set aside for MLU activity, according to @VTV_fi so that lowers their max O&M to €8 billion...closer again to the Danish Air Force’s 27 a/c for 30 years.
So a rough calculation. 60 aircraft, 30 years, €7.5 billion. An O&M cost of just €4.16 m per a/c per year. Hate to say it, but is that really achievable? We then return to the force cutting concepts raised earlier...
