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New pre-print with my good friend Sinan Yildirim:
"A model of dynamic migration networks: Explaining Turkey's inter-provincial migration flows" https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/rf724/ via @OSFramework
"A model of dynamic migration networks: Explaining Turkey's inter-provincial migration flows" https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/rf724/ via @OSFramework
Here we analyse the network of migration flows between the 81 provinces of Turkey from 2009 to 2019 with a Dirichlet-multinomial model.
We analyse the associations of a number of province-level factors with out- and in-migration using a hierarchical Bayesian estimation
We find that GDP, unemployment, population, spatial distance, network features are important correlates of migration. Interestingly, we also find strong association between "political distance" between provinces and migration. Local power of the AKP correlates with migration too.
The higher the political distance between provinces, the lower the migration between the two. The more districts of a province AKP governs, the lower is the in- and out-migration. This association between politics and migration may accelerate political polarisation of space...
