THREAD. The “mail voter fraud” narrative is about more than a fear of increased turnout among Dems. It’s also about facilitating foreign interference, including Russia tampering with voter registrations and actual votes, and distracting the public from that effort. Here’s why:

2. In the book Rigged (pictures above), author @davidashimer notes that in 2016, the Obama administration has two competing concerns: 1) a Russian influence campaign on social media; and 2) actual Russian hacking into state voting infrastructure

3. With regard to #2 Obama officials, including Homeland Sec. Jeh Johnson and CIA Director John Brennan, were concerned that Russia may attempt to actually tamper with voter registration, and even with vote tallies

4. This fear prompted the administration from taking strong deterrent measures against Russia before the election -- because of fear that Russia might retaliate by tampering with the vote itself. Basically, Putin got a verbal threat from Obama not to %&*@! with us

5. Presumably, since Russia didn't end up tampering with registrations or tallies, Putin considered the possibility of a Clinton win and really strong blowback, and hedged his bets by not doing all that he could have. But even so, his gamble paid off, which is the problem

6. This time around, Putin knows that the current administration isn't going to do anything to stop him from going farther than he did in 2016. And Trump has installed loyal cronies in DHS and the head of DNI -- the two entities responsible for monitoring election integrity

7. Trump is obviously not going to do anything to stop Putin. And of course Mitch McConnell has prevented Congress from implementing election security measures by law

8. What this means is that mail/in voting represents a serious threat to Trump because it significantly undermines a way that he can benefit from Russia’s interference: Mail ballots can’t be hacked; they leave a paper trail; and they can be easily counted in a recount

9. The level of panic Trump has exhibited on this topic — and the downplay of COVID — is partially explained by this. He NEEDS people — Ds and Rs — to vote in person, at the polls. He’s “counting” on it

10. At the same time, the “mail-in vote fraud” narrative sets up a convenient diversion for any *actual* tampering at the polls. He can claim that the paper ballots is where the “real” foreign interference occurred. It’s always projection, as you know

11. The fact that AG Barr is parroting this narrative also tells you something is up. I expect DHS and the DNI to get on the “foreign interference in mail-in ballots” as well

12. From Putin’s POV, vote tampering may have some serious costs if Biden wins — but that only increases his incentive to help Trump. And, of course, a contested election is a win for him as well, so he would likely be willing to risk it

13. I will be doing a panel @JacksonYale on July 9 on Shimer’s book with David, Former DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson, and fellow Havkson lecturer Ted Wittenstein, where we will discuss this and more. More details to come!