#Belarus is less stable than it appears. Sure, #Lukashenka will probably 'win' the 9th August presidential election. But beneath the surface the country is changing in ways that are troubling for the president. A short thread.
@CER_London /1

Unofficial polling puts support for the president at less than 10% - due to falling living standards, annoyance with corruption and bullying officials, and Lukashenka's weird take on COVID-19 - 'no need for a lockdown, since drinking vodka & driving tractors cures the virus'. /2

Now there's a credible opponent - former banker @viktar_babaryka. He had repatriated art by Belarusan artists like Chagall and Soutine but is not just popular with intelligentsia. 450,000 citizens signed nomination papers for his candidacy. But now he & son are in gaol. /3

Civil society is advancing in leaps and bounds (see https://www.cepa.org/twilight-in-belarus): volunteers organised aid for COVID-19 victims (when govt did not), people queued for miles to sign election nomination papers and now prominent sportspeople & musicians are criticising the arrests. /4

Lukashenka appears rattled, which may explain the growing repression. It is normal for him to arrest opponents after a presidential election, but not before. Opposition figures have received anonymous threats of rape and of losing their children. /5

Over the past few years the EU has sought to build a closer relationship to Belarus, in my view rightly, as a way of tilting the country westward. Lukashenka released the political prisoners, as the EU asked. /6

But now that there are once more political prisoners, @JosepBorrellF & EU leaders must be firm: the sanctions lifted not long ago should return unless the prisoners are released. The US should move in step with the EU. /7

The biggest long-term challenge to #Lukashenka is the declining economy. #Russia has removed subsidies, in the hope that it can force Belarus into a much closer union than the current Eurasian Economic Union, eg a monetary union. /8

Aliaksandr Lukashenka is running out of options. His recent behavior means the West & its institutions won't bail him out. His citizens are increasingly restless. Putin - never a friend of the president - must sniff an opportunity to turn Belarus into a real client state. ENDS