Read on Twitter
when you're new to looking at a system, it's easy to mistake what things mean
it seems to have become an article of faith that "TX hospitals are stressed" and "dallas ICU's are full"
but are they?
she's free to "feel" as she likes but the data looks different
here's dallas: https://twitter.com/benpopper/status/1275056837860249600
it seems to have become an article of faith that "TX hospitals are stressed" and "dallas ICU's are full"
but are they?
she's free to "feel" as she likes but the data looks different
here's dallas: https://twitter.com/benpopper/status/1275056837860249600
dallas county has 90 hospitals.
they are currently 78% full which is a pretty normal sort of number. they have filled up from elective and other procedures.
952 of 11,375 patients are cov. 8%.
cov has used up 6.5% of capacity in dallas.
and from this we are terrified?
they are currently 78% full which is a pretty normal sort of number. they have filled up from elective and other procedures.
952 of 11,375 patients are cov. 8%.
cov has used up 6.5% of capacity in dallas.
and from this we are terrified?
people seem worried about graphs like this.
my goodness, available beds are down by 8,000!
but they do NOT show what people think they show.
6000 of those are non-covid. this is what happens when you open up hospitals for normal business again.
my goodness, available beds are down by 8,000!
but they do NOT show what people think they show.
6000 of those are non-covid. this is what happens when you open up hospitals for normal business again.
keep in mind hospitals were all dying from a lack of business and demand is pent up.
and the state as a whole has TONS of capacity right now.
there are 14,316 beds available, 25% of state total.
there are 3409 cov+ patients statewide. 8% of patients.
6% of total capacity.
and the state as a whole has TONS of capacity right now.
there are 14,316 beds available, 25% of state total.
there are 3409 cov+ patients statewide. 8% of patients.
6% of total capacity.
the idea that covid is slamming TX hospitals looks a bit implausible based on this.
if inpatient census doubled, they'd use less that 1/4 of currently available capacity.
oh, and this is a screenshot from yesterday.
note that avail beds are up 615 since then.
if inpatient census doubled, they'd use less that 1/4 of currently available capacity.
oh, and this is a screenshot from yesterday.
note that avail beds are up 615 since then.
hospitals divert all the time.
they do all kinds of things you probably never saw if you have not looked at them.
here's an article from 2018. remember how they shut the state because of these sorts of reports? https://www.10news.com/marketplace/flu/a-texas-hospital-is-turning-away-non-flu-patients-because-the-flu-is-rampant-there
they do all kinds of things you probably never saw if you have not looked at them.
here's an article from 2018. remember how they shut the state because of these sorts of reports? https://www.10news.com/marketplace/flu/a-texas-hospital-is-turning-away-non-flu-patients-because-the-flu-is-rampant-there
any one hospital can be doing lots of things at any given time.
and this fact can be used to try to misrepresent corner cases as some sort of norm as newsweek so aptly illustrates here.
but it's just lying with selective truth. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1274823563908808704?s=20
and this fact can be used to try to misrepresent corner cases as some sort of norm as newsweek so aptly illustrates here.
but it's just lying with selective truth. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1274823563908808704?s=20
so what IS happening in TX?
COV hospitalizations are definitely up. we seem to be seeing a similar trend in az and socal
these states have a couple things in common:
one is they border mexico. this seems to be a source of cases and hospitalizations https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/us/coronavirus-border-mexico-california-el-centro.html
COV hospitalizations are definitely up. we seem to be seeing a similar trend in az and socal
these states have a couple things in common:
one is they border mexico. this seems to be a source of cases and hospitalizations https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/us/coronavirus-border-mexico-california-el-centro.html
there are ~1.5 million US expats living in mexico (many as retirees)
if you got sick abroad, would you not seek to come home and get care in a US hospital? esp if you are older and medicare eligible?
and yes, that is perfectly legal. the state department is very clear on that
if you got sick abroad, would you not seek to come home and get care in a US hospital? esp if you are older and medicare eligible?
and yes, that is perfectly legal. the state department is very clear on that
it does not take a big % of 1.5 million to add a few thousand hospitalization to the US bordertowns.
i'm sure this is having some effect, though not sure how much.
1% would be 15,000 people, a number that exceeds all net hospital census growth in CA, TX, AZ.
i'm sure this is having some effect, though not sure how much.
1% would be 15,000 people, a number that exceeds all net hospital census growth in CA, TX, AZ.
another interesting fact hit me from the state dept guidance: it's open for workers and makes specific carve outs for migratory farm workers.
states with big migrant farmhand populations: CA, TX, FL.
there are over 3 million such workers in the US.
states with big migrant farmhand populations: CA, TX, FL.
there are over 3 million such workers in the US.
they are notably more susceptible to many diseases as they tend to live in cramped quarters. there have been some hotspots in FL that i know of.
i have no idea how big an issue this is (and i am NOT advocating closing the border over this) but it strikes me as plausible.
i have no idea how big an issue this is (and i am NOT advocating closing the border over this) but it strikes me as plausible.
and we're def seeing these cases cluster around the border.
look at california. LA and OC alone have more hospitalizations than the rest of the state. they are ~30% of population.
and the whole spike is there.
the rest is in the central/sacto valley. that's the farms.
look at california. LA and OC alone have more hospitalizations than the rest of the state. they are ~30% of population.
and the whole spike is there.
the rest is in the central/sacto valley. that's the farms.
does anyone have more color on this? how is it being handled? i would expect health agencies to be testing migrant workers aggressively as we head into peak season.
are they sending positives to hospitals?
what is policy and how is it working here?
are they sending positives to hospitals?
what is policy and how is it working here?
one thing we can say about TX is that like several other states being accused of "reckless re-opening" they really do not look different that the US avg.
what in this chart looks "reckless"?
it seems no one bothers to check their facts.
this feels partisan.
what in this chart looks "reckless"?
it seems no one bothers to check their facts.
this feels partisan.
texas has 76 deaths per mm from COV vs us avg of 369.
cuomo (1605 d/mm in NY) throwing shade at govs abbot and desantis is like mr magoo shouting driving instructions to mario andretti.
cuomo (1605 d/mm in NY) throwing shade at govs abbot and desantis is like mr magoo shouting driving instructions to mario andretti.
the fear narrative here is just astonishing.
trying to shovel back this tide of disinformation is like trying to eat all the oreos faster than they come out of the factory.
but we can only try.
one cookie at a time.
trying to shovel back this tide of disinformation is like trying to eat all the oreos faster than they come out of the factory.
but we can only try.
one cookie at a time.
