GOPrs seem incapable of understanding how infectious disease works. However, I see too many others also confused. So...

If 6,000 Trumpers go to an event, and 20 get infected, this is not just a MAGA problem. Within days, 30 people the 20 contact will be infected - total 50.../1

...let's say those 50 only infect 1 other person, total 100. We are now, say, one week from the event. Of those 100, a good portion will be people who would never have gone to the event - but have to go to work, buy groceries, etc. Within days after that, the number is 300.../2

...the reason for this is that the rt (infectiousness of the virus at a particular time, which is r0 (biological infectiousness assuming no actions to mitigate) as adjusted by actions to mitigate.) But the rT is higher in states where Trump speaks, because they are red.../3

...states that are sloppy at doing any official mitigation - if they do any at all. So, now, we're a week and a half out. 300 are infected. But only 50 have been diagnosed. A few days later, the 300 has become 750. We are not two weeks out from the event, but we are only JUST../4

...beginning to see impact. The impact reveals itself very slowly, but suddenly - the numbers start hitting records every day. Why? Because the maximum 14 day incubation period keeps being hit by people who were infected 5-14 previous days. And remember: we started with 20.../5

...and, in less than 2 weeks, are up to 750 - which will only be revealed in total two weeks later. By that point, the number will be in the thousands - potentially more than attended the rally - and growing every day.

Unfortunately, idiots think THIS is when they should.../6

...start taking action - even though the consequences were perfectly predictable from the get-go. But notice - we go back to "only 20 at the rally" were infected, so they will say "it's only 20 so the rally wasn't a big deal."

This is not just GOP self-deception..../7

...it is also democrats. I see over and over people saying the protests were not dangerous because they were outside and the vast majority were wearing masks. No, they were still dangerous - just LESS so, because they weren't inside at an event where almost no one wore masks.../8

...so, assume there were 6,000 people at the protest and 10 got infected. They then go to another protest, and infect 10 more. Now we are at 20. And the same process - infecting people who had nothing to do with the event - starts to grow..../9

...a virus does not give a damn WHY you got together as a crowd. And masks - if worn by everyone - mitigate, decreasing the infection rate massively, but they dont eliminate. However, if someone near you is not wearing a mask, even if you are, the chance of infection is only../10

...dropped a substantial percentage. Both have to wear in order to have true, significant mitigation. Which is why - even if you are masked - stay away from people who are not.

America is not mature enough to manage this because we do not listen to the experts, PLUS.../11

...we dont understand how science works. We think "Oh, they said this in February, now they say different in June. They dont know what they're doing." No, thats science with a new virus. The more information you develop, the more studies you conduct, the more you understand.../12

...and the more the advice on mitigation evolves. So don't listen to Facebook. Hell, don't listen to me. I'm not an expert. I just quote them.

Best prevention: Stay home if you can.
If you must go out, where masks and stay away from everyone. Wash hands endlessly.../13

...and remember: We have been abandoned by our government. We have officials who think they can bluff their way past a virus, that if they say enough times "it's not a problem" then it will disappear.

If you dont protect yourself, no one will....

..finally, the way I think of this if i *have* to leave the house:

I call the unmasked The Walking Dead. Not just cause some will die. No mask is like seeing what looks like a bite on someone in a zombie-world. They're dangerous. They might be infected. Stay away from them.

fin