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Thread on COVID-19. Bear with me.
Tales of success over COVID-19 are greatly exaggerated, to say the least. We're seeing the national numbers coming back up on a week over week basis. 1/n
Tales of success over COVID-19 are greatly exaggerated, to say the least. We're seeing the national numbers coming back up on a week over week basis. 1/n
26,079 new cases today. 20,161 last Sunday (June 14th) = 29.4% increase
33,388 yesterday. 25,459 on June 13th = 31.1% increase
33,359 on Friday. 27328 on June 12th = 21.8% increase.
This isn't due to increased testing. The positive rate is basically flat (~5%)
2/n
33,388 yesterday. 25,459 on June 13th = 31.1% increase
33,359 on Friday. 27328 on June 12th = 21.8% increase.
This isn't due to increased testing. The positive rate is basically flat (~5%)
2/n
The reason we are seeing what we are is that infection rates in red states are exploding. For a time, the decline in new cases in hard hit states like New York were bigger than the increases in other states. Thus, the rate looked flat.
It wasn't. 3/n
It wasn't. 3/n
Red states were lulled into a false sense of security, and their governors have vowed not to shut down again, no matter what the numbers look like.
This is likely to be catastrophic. 4/n https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/06/17/florida-gov-ron-desantis-vows-to-keep-state-open-as-cases-surge
This is likely to be catastrophic. 4/n https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/06/17/florida-gov-ron-desantis-vows-to-keep-state-open-as-cases-surge
We now know that SARS-CoV-19 can still spread rapidly, even in hot climates. Thus, as AZ, TX, FL are spiking, there's little reason to believe it will simply flatten out without continued social distancing. Masks are helpful, but not generally enforced in red states
5/n
5/n
COVID-19 has dropped out of the headlines, in part because the number of new cases declined, then leveled off. In part, it is quarantine fatigue, and the new 8 hour news cycle under Trump. Deaths continue to decline. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/10/quarantine-governors-lockdowns-coronavirus-312146 6/n
It is worth noting that deaths lag infection rates. If the rise continues (and I regard that as likely given the minimalist measures in place in red states where the spikes are), deaths will come back up. 7/n
We still don't have a proven treatment, though there are a few that show at least a little promise in reducing mortality. So, more cases almost certainly means more deaths. First the ICUs fill up, then... https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/florida-palm-beach-running-out-icu-beds 8/n
While the low attendance at the Tulsa rally shows that a surprising number of Trump supporters can still recognize the threat of COVID-19 in a crowded stadium, the cell phone data shows we're moving around a lot more than in early April. The 50% decrease is insufficient. 9/n
Some observers have suggested that, much like gun violence, the US recognizes the carnage compared to the rest of the world, but is unwilling to do anything because, well, 'Murica.
This seems an apt comparison. 10/n
This seems an apt comparison. 10/n
Thus, it is not unrealistic to forecast that the back half of the first wave is likely to be way worse (numerically) than the first wave. We're already seeing new case numbers almost as high as the first peak, and we're on an upswing. 11/n
COVID-19 has been much further down the list in the news cycle. Economists have been touting a "V" shaped recovery, despite supply chains that remain disrupted. . Alan Greenspan once cautioned against "irrational exuberance"
Seems appropriate again. 12/n
Seems appropriate again. 12/n
If this goes the way the numbers suggest, and states continue to refuse to take more than minimal steps to enforce social distancing, it is likely to be back at the top of the news cycle again. 13/n
