I don’t see renewed dollar liquidity squeeze this year. Emerging markets are the most vulnerable and these are the current metrics that lead me to this conclusion:
1- EMs net liabilities for 2020 and 2021 are about USD 2 trillion of which about USD 700-800 bn this year
2- IMF has an arsenal of about $1 trillion which I think will take a year or two to deploy fully but have already started.
3- because of risk on returning a bit, yields are much lower and EMs are able to raise USD funding at adequate yields.
4- Swap Lines to EMs seem negligible
5- I see a runway for most EMs of about 1 to 1.5 years from what they have raised so far. Much like companies that were able to tap bond market at relatively low yields to build their balance sheets.
6- Thus IMO 2020 is resolved, we have to start looking at 2021 for the squeeze. Mathematically it comes in 2nd half but can happen much earlier as EMs start struggling to refinance & EMs who have not received financing crumbling already in 2020, pressuring asset class further
END
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