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First up in my #2020PlayerBreakdown series for #fantasyfootball is:
Austin Ekeler, RB
Los Angeles Chargers
5’10’’ 200lbs
Age: 25
Let’s get started...
First up in my #2020PlayerBreakdown series for #fantasyfootball is:
Austin Ekeler, RB
Los Angeles Chargers
5’10’’ 200lbs
Age: 25
Let’s get started...
2019 Year End Statistics:
Games: 16
Rush: 132
Yds: 557
TD: 3
Y/A: 4.2
Rec: 92
Targets: 108
Yds: 993
TD: 8
Y/R: 10.8
Catch%: 85.2
Touches: 224
Total Yds: 1550
Total TD: 11
Fumbles: 3
Games: 16
Rush: 132
Yds: 557
TD: 3
Y/A: 4.2
Rec: 92
Targets: 108
Yds: 993
TD: 8
Y/R: 10.8
Catch%: 85.2
Touches: 224
Total Yds: 1550
Total TD: 11
Fumbles: 3
Ekeler’s fantasy value is almost entirely tied to PPR formats rather than standard.
In fact, if not for Christian McCaffrey, Ekeler would have been the most productive receiving back in fantasy.
The holdout of Melvin Gordon combined w/ volume were a perfect storm in 2019.
In fact, if not for Christian McCaffrey, Ekeler would have been the most productive receiving back in fantasy.
The holdout of Melvin Gordon combined w/ volume were a perfect storm in 2019.
In 2019 Ekeler was:
4th in fantasy points (RB)
10 games w/ 5 catches or more
92 rec without a drop (Led NFL)
1,500+ total yds w/ 10+ total TD
993 rec yds (12th most ever by RB
Changes for 2020:
- No Melvin Gordon
- No Phillip Rivers
- Taylor/Herbert at QB
4th in fantasy points (RB) 10 games w/ 5 catches or more 92 rec without a drop (Led NFL) 1,500+ total yds w/ 10+ total TD 993 rec yds (12th most ever by RBChanges for 2020:
- No Melvin Gordon
- No Phillip Rivers
- Taylor/Herbert at QB
The Chargers choice to allow Melvin Gordon to walk free & sign Ekeler to a 4 yr $24.5 million contract should give you an idea of their confidence.
Add in the fact that LAC added only UCLA RB Joshua Kelley to join Justin Jackson as backfield competition.
Ekeler is the guy.
Add in the fact that LAC added only UCLA RB Joshua Kelley to join Justin Jackson as backfield competition.
Ekeler is the guy.
This does not mean they will not be a part of the running game. They will. Ekeler may shine in the passing game, but not as a traditional RB.
According to @fboutsiders:
DYAR: -8 (RB35)
DVOA: -10% (RB35)
EYards: 485 (RB34)
Success Rate: 45%
Passing Game RB2
Running Game RB32
According to @fboutsiders:
DYAR: -8 (RB35)
DVOA: -10% (RB35)
EYards: 485 (RB34)
Success Rate: 45%
Passing Game RB2
Running Game RB32
So not only are volume & opportunity Ekeler’s friend, they are a necessity.
He led the NFL w/ 227 YAC above expected, but he did that w/ 108 targets.
What happens now that check down artist Phillip Rivers is in Indy?
Can we expect Tyrod Taylor to keep feeding Ekeler?
He led the NFL w/ 227 YAC above expected, but he did that w/ 108 targets.
What happens now that check down artist Phillip Rivers is in Indy?
Can we expect Tyrod Taylor to keep feeding Ekeler?
Tyrod Taylor has spent most of his career in pistol formations.
The same offense SF & BAL used to propel Colin Kaepernick & Lamar Jackson.
This worries fantasy owners, as many think this will lead to Taylor running more often, when Rivers would not.
This is not the case.
The same offense SF & BAL used to propel Colin Kaepernick & Lamar Jackson.
This worries fantasy owners, as many think this will lead to Taylor running more often, when Rivers would not.
This is not the case.
Greg Roman & Anthony Lynn utilized the pistol offense in BUF to open up ALL facets of the run game.
Inside/outside zone, power running, pass catching, & more.
This should maximize Ekeler’s rushing capabilities, compared to 2019, even in a time share.
Inside/outside zone, power running, pass catching, & more.
This should maximize Ekeler’s rushing capabilities, compared to 2019, even in a time share.
Ekeler managed just 557 rush yards in 2019, partly due to the presence of Melvin Gordon.
With Gordon in DEN, Ekeler could see more carries within a versatile rushing scheme w/ J.Jackson as competition.
Use YAC abilities/elusiveness w/ read option, inside/outside zone plays.
With Gordon in DEN, Ekeler could see more carries within a versatile rushing scheme w/ J.Jackson as competition.
Use YAC abilities/elusiveness w/ read option, inside/outside zone plays.
For those now wondering if Justin Jackson is a threat:
DYAR: 50
DVOA: 34.9%
EYards: 375
Jackson WILL certainly play a role as a more traditional RB.
He has yet to prove himself as a consistent weapon, but should be valuable in his own right (unless he loses his job to Kelley)
DYAR: 50
DVOA: 34.9%
EYards: 375
Jackson WILL certainly play a role as a more traditional RB.
He has yet to prove himself as a consistent weapon, but should be valuable in his own right (unless he loses his job to Kelley)
Back to the passing attack...
Before the 2019 season Phillip Rivers was tied for 8th among NFL QB in % of check-down passes.
He was tied with Tyrod Taylor!
Taylor has traditionally been a conservative QB, despite his apparent repuatation as a mobile gunslinger. https://twitter.com/pff_steve/status/1153747585544441856
Before the 2019 season Phillip Rivers was tied for 8th among NFL QB in % of check-down passes.
He was tied with Tyrod Taylor!
Taylor has traditionally been a conservative QB, despite his apparent repuatation as a mobile gunslinger. https://twitter.com/pff_steve/status/1153747585544441856
This is also not Taylor’s first go around w/ LAC coach Anthony Lynn.
Together from 2015-17, Taylor led BUF to a 22-20 record while snapping their historic playoff drought
Ekeler was just 7 yds shy of 1,000-yard rec w/ only a 45.8% opportunity share. That should change w/ Taylor
Together from 2015-17, Taylor led BUF to a 22-20 record while snapping their historic playoff drought
Ekeler was just 7 yds shy of 1,000-yard rec w/ only a 45.8% opportunity share. That should change w/ Taylor
In BUF Taylor worked w/ LeSean McCoy.
In the chart below you can see that while he had plenty of touches, Shady was not a “huge” part of the passing game.
But LAC made it a point to move Ekeler all over the field and manufacture touches for him. BUF did NOT do that for McCoy.
In the chart below you can see that while he had plenty of touches, Shady was not a “huge” part of the passing game.
But LAC made it a point to move Ekeler all over the field and manufacture touches for him. BUF did NOT do that for McCoy.
Ekeler trailed only CMC in PPR points over the first month of the season.
Even after Gordon’s return, Austin out scored him over the last 12 weeks of the season. 5th among RBs in that stretch do time, while Gordon was 10th.
Even after Gordon’s return, Austin out scored him over the last 12 weeks of the season. 5th among RBs in that stretch do time, while Gordon was 10th.
Among RB w/ at least 100 touches, Ekeler led DFS scoring in pts per touch.
Fan Duel: 1.17 pts per touch
(2nd Mostert w/ 1.17)
DK: 1.44 pts per touch
(2nd CMC w/ 1.23)
It’s important to remember that in today’s NFL, you need judge a RB differently. Especially in fantasy.
Fan Duel: 1.17 pts per touch
(2nd Mostert w/ 1.17)
DK: 1.44 pts per touch
(2nd CMC w/ 1.23)
It’s important to remember that in today’s NFL, you need judge a RB differently. Especially in fantasy.
Ekeler is an efficient RB, just not in the sense that you traditionally look for.
@heathcummingssr spoke about how Ekeler was 10% better on a per touch basis than Alvin Kamara, despite Kamara being on a better offense. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-dynasty-rankings-update-free-agency-winners-and-losers-at-running-back
@heathcummingssr spoke about how Ekeler was 10% better on a per touch basis than Alvin Kamara, despite Kamara being on a better offense. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-dynasty-rankings-update-free-agency-winners-and-losers-at-running-back
Ekeler’s floor is going to be controlled by QB play.
If Taylor can move the chains & keep the offense moving, things will be rosy.
But a history of struggling to find an open receiver may limit the LAC offense (especially the WR).
And of course there is Justin Herbert...
If Taylor can move the chains & keep the offense moving, things will be rosy.
But a history of struggling to find an open receiver may limit the LAC offense (especially the WR).
And of course there is Justin Herbert...
History suggests a veteran like Taylor & young rookie QB should share a common theme: conservative gameplay.
- Limit mistakes & move the chains.
This should benefit Austin Ekeler.
Coach Anthony Lynn plans to utilize the running game. A lot.
- Limit mistakes & move the chains.
This should benefit Austin Ekeler.
Coach Anthony Lynn plans to utilize the running game. A lot.
The BIG question:
Is the expanded workload Ekeler could in 2020 being overstated?
He will no doubt get more carries, but will it afford him RB1 status in fantasy?
The short answer is maybe. He seems like a safe high end RB2 w/ elite RB1 upside.
Is the expanded workload Ekeler could in 2020 being overstated?
He will no doubt get more carries, but will it afford him RB1 status in fantasy?
The short answer is maybe. He seems like a safe high end RB2 w/ elite RB1 upside.
PFF has Ekeler just surpassing 200 touches, while Justin Jackson is in line for 151.
But they project him as 5th among RB in catches, 3rd in rec yds. THAT is where his value lies.
His limited volume in the run game limits value in non-PPR, but he should shine in most formats.
But they project him as 5th among RB in catches, 3rd in rec yds. THAT is where his value lies.
His limited volume in the run game limits value in non-PPR, but he should shine in most formats.
Bottom line: Volume & Consistency
Ekeler posted double-digit fantasy points in half-PPR leagues 13 times last season (at least 14 in seven of those).
He did this despite having more than a 60 percent snap share just five times last year.
That will change in 2020.
Ekeler posted double-digit fantasy points in half-PPR leagues 13 times last season (at least 14 in seven of those).
He did this despite having more than a 60 percent snap share just five times last year.
That will change in 2020.
TDs are hard to predict.
In 2019 Ekeler had 8 rec TD on 92 rec & 3 rush TD on 132 attempts.
While there could be regression, a change in game plan could actually afford more opportunity for Ekeler.
Difficult to predict end result.
Below are the RZ targets last season for LAC
In 2019 Ekeler had 8 rec TD on 92 rec & 3 rush TD on 132 attempts.
While there could be regression, a change in game plan could actually afford more opportunity for Ekeler.
Difficult to predict end result.
Below are the RZ targets last season for LAC
The QB siutation overall is a red flag. But one that is being overstated.
The Anthony Lynn system will afford Ekeler opportunity & volume regardless of who the QB is.
If you can grab Ekeler in the 2nd round (maybe even as your RB2), you could be in for a big fantasy season.
The Anthony Lynn system will afford Ekeler opportunity & volume regardless of who the QB is.
If you can grab Ekeler in the 2nd round (maybe even as your RB2), you could be in for a big fantasy season.
What to expect in 2020:
Rush: 175
Yds: 726
TD: 4
Rec: 75
Targets: 98
Yds: 692
TD: 4
Regression is likely from 108 targets, 92 rec, 993 rec yds, & 8 rec TD. But losses will be mitigated w/ additional carries, (
touches)
Rush: 175
Yds: 726
TD: 4
Rec: 75
Targets: 98
Yds: 692
TD: 4
Regression is likely from 108 targets, 92 rec, 993 rec yds, & 8 rec TD. But losses will be mitigated w/ additional carries, (
touches)
