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Great @WSJ deep dive story on 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland"> by @yarotrof & @tggrove. @DmitriTrenin nails it: “There is an increasing realization in Russia that getting too close to the Chinese giant can lead to undesirable dependence on Beijing.” Couple of additional thoughts https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten"> https://www.wsj.com/articles/weary-russia-tries-to-avoid-entanglement-in-u-s-china-spat-11592654401">https://www.wsj.com/articles/...
2/ Moscow indeed becomes increasingly alerted to and concerned about its growing dependency on China, as is evident in recent conversations with https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland"> senior government officials and business executives from both private sector & SOEs.
3/ It& #39;s not really about the mutual distrust exposed by early stages of COVID management, and not about spying including the most recent case since great powers spy on each other, even closest allies (Angela Merkel can tell you all about it)... https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1272458566167924736">https://twitter.com/AlexGabue...
4/ ... and it& #39;s not about the asymmetry between https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China"> per se. The Kremlin is not naive to believe that Russia& #39;s comprehensive national power will ever become symmetric to China& #39;s or America& #39;s. The key for Moscow is its strategic autonomy and ability to safeguard https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland"> core interests.
5/ What worries Russia? 1) Growing https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China"> assertiveness; 2) Growing https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten"> rivalry + the rest of the world moving in one camp or another thus reducing Moscow& #39;s ability to balance; 3) Russia& #39;s growing dependency on China, particularly in strategic tech, which https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China"> may use as a leverage.
6/ As @DmitriTrenin rightfully says, “the most important thing for Russia is to maintain equilibrium, and not to fall into the struggle between America and China.” ICYMI, here is his recent piece on potential balancing strategy for Moscow https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten"> https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81702">https://carnegie.ru/commentar...
7/ Amid broken https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland"> relations ＋ worsening of https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China"> relations to https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flagge von Indien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Indien"> & other players includinghttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union">that Moscow would want to use for balancing, finding an alternative to China is hard. Here I tend to agree with @KofmanMichael, and disagree with dear colleague&friend Feng Yujun 冯玉军
8/ It doesn& #39;t matter how many times Putin & @realDonaldTrump have spoken: fundamental change in https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland"> relations is unlikely. An excellent explainer by @eugene_rumer & @dicktfirefly in their recent paper, part of @CarnegieEndow #GlobalRussia project https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/15/u.s.-russian-relations-in-2030-pub-82056">https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/1...
9/ Russia is working hard not to be seen as China& #39;s junior partner, and there is a skillful team at @MID_RF trying to manage that, but diplomatic maneuvering will only give you as much without deep changes in foreign and, more importantly, domestic policy https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1273693461963780098?s=20">https://twitter.com/AlexGabue...
10/ What are Top-3 things we should watch for? 1) What happens to https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland"> military partnership, including sales&co-development of weapons? 2) What happens to @Huawei in Russia, esp. in 5G? 3) Will https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China"> be able to convert Moscow& #39;s reliance on its market into ownership of https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland"> assets?
11/ As part of shameless promotion of our work, I know no better resource to follow those crucial developments in https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland"> ties than the website of @CarnegieEndow& #39;s new project, #PaxSinica https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. We will continue to watch this space & provide granular analysis https://carnegie.ru/specialprojects/paxsinica/?lang=en">https://carnegie.ru/specialpr...
