Time for a brain dump thread on the casino/sports betting industry at present and the future. You know, for my 68 followers (half of which are probably bots, but whatever). So let's get to it (1).

First thing I'll say is that I think any normal investor (like you Robinhood bros) in the sports betting space right now should be extremely jittery. There has been this "reopening" attempt here in the US, but what has it brought us? (2)

Today we had 8 Phillies players test positive down in Florida. Some Blue Jays players too. Even a pro golfer. Whether you're political or not, this is the result of shitty leadership. The UK, which didn't initially kick ass on COVID, has EPL back. Just think about that. (3)

OK so where does that leave us? In a politicized pandemic country that can't even get baseball players together without them testing positive. That's a fucking problem. That isn't politics, it's fact. (4)

Considering MLB and the players union can't even agree on the money that will be made from a season, when you combine that with an immediate breakout of COVID cases from a handful of players down in Florida, where does this lead? (5)

Keep in mind as well that two of the states that MLB is thinking of hosting teams in for a shortened season are Florida and Arizona, which are seeing huge COVID spikes at present. Arizona had over 10% of tests come back today positive. That's nearly NYC at peak bad. (6)

Even if Manfred forces players back, how many will come back? If I'm making $30M a year and can afford to sit at home for a season (and lose $30M) to ensure 7-10 more HEALTHY years at $30M, I'm staying the fuck home. (7)

When you look at the NFL, there's no way a season is going to happen. 32 teams, 53 players per roster (+ practice squad) then coaches/staff/etc. It's 3000+ people. You cannot social distance that. (8)

The NBA has the most realistic chance of coming back because of small teams. You can actually bubble that. But even that season seems tenuous. The NHL may be able to do the same, it's somewhere between NBA and MLB. (9)

When you combine all the evidence with the fact that EVERY FUCKING EXPERT on immunology and viruses says there is going to be a second wave (and additionally the virulence of the virus does not appear to be waning), that means EVERY season is in major jeopardy. (10)

No one wants to admit this. Yes, it sucks. I don't like it either, but at this point, the favorite should be that we will have either broken up or outright cancelled seasons. (11)

So on my 12th tweet, what does this mean for operators? Well, it's not pretty. We're already seeing Vegas cases rising, and it won't be long before they have to shut down again. So I would be really worried if I held any public casino company. (12)

And I'm sure internally, many casino companies are pretty worried. How could they not be? There's nothing coming out of Vegas showing that this will end well until there's a vaccine. (13)

When you switch to online, I think it's better, but not by much. DraftKings is trading at 39x revenue. That's insane. I know this is because of the expectation of expansion - which will eventually come - but if there isn't much to bet on how useful is it? (14)

There's a very conceivable world where we are without major American sports, or very short spurts of it, for a full calendar year. In fact, I'd argue that's much MORE likely than us having uninterrupted sports in the next year (15).

DraftKings is losing money at present, they said about $20M a month or so. Online casino will help plug that hole some, but imagine going a year in a state not dissimilar to this. And it's even worse for a company like Penn which owns over 40 casinos! (16)

At some point, we probably better look in the mirror and realize that (1) casinos are not going to be back to normal until a vaccine is here (2) sports may not either (3) companies can't generally go a whole year with a major revenue hole. (17)

So I think ANY company, casino or online, is currently a major risk. That's DraftKings, Penn, Flutter, MGM, Wynn, you name it. Everyone is way too optimistic. Like a vaccine is going to drop out of the sky tomorrow. (18)

I know the whole world is working on this vaccine, but every scientist out there with any notable experience says it'll be a miracle to get a vaccine out in 12 months. And that doesn't even account for production. (19)

So look, I know people will look at this as pessimistic, but what I'm trying to get across is....this isn't pessimistic, it's closer to reality than we all want to admit. And at some point the shine of sports betting will wear off for a bit if a company is going broke. (20)

Investors seem to be giving a lot of companies a 2020 pass, but investors are fickle. What's true now may not be true tomorrow. If the NFL cancels its season, and I think at some point they'll be forced to, there will be hell to pay. (21)

Casinos need money, online operators need money. They can't have these giant revenue holes forever. At some point, investors will realize that, vacate, and wait for the green light - which is a vaccine. But that's still a great unknown at present. (22)

I hope it comes sooner than later too, but I also think we're kidding ourselves if we think everything will be fine in a month or two. It won't. So be ready. That's all I'm saying. Fin. (23)

And here’s depressing news from the CFB world, but as I’ve said I can’t see the CFB season happening. https://sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/clemson-athletics-28-positive-covid-19-tests-include-many-football-players-213852485.html?__twitter_impression=true