There was a ton of Fedspeak this week, most of which I listened to, some I missed. Of course, the Humphrey Hawkins testimony by Chairman Powell was the most important, but lots of others mattered on the margin. So what did we learn? A thread.
1)The Fed is still pedal to the metal – the FOMC has no intention of slowing down its near-zero interest rates or its asset purchases anytime soon, and if anything, the Fed would look for new ways to help as needed. (Though yield curve control is not close for now.)
2)The markets are pretty optimistic about the economic recovery – the Fed isn’t. The official FOMC forecast is for 9.3% unemployment in 2020's 4th quarter, but the trend with the coronavirus of rising cases is very worrisome, as @NeelKashkari and others point out.
3) Fed leaders, led by Chair Powell, are talking about inequality in a serious way I have not heard in a long time. Of course, the virus hurts low income folks the most and we have police brutality protests in the street, so it’s topical --but still new for the slow-moving Fed.
4)But there’s not any easy solution to inequality – yes, the Fed can push harder for full employment as my colleague @Boes_ pointed out in looking at the history of Humphrey Hawkins. But a lot of the solutions would have to come from Congress and the president, not the Fed.
5) Speaking of which, Powell, a bit reluctantly, came down in favor of more fiscal stimulus. He’s especially worried about state and local governments, which are getting hurt badly, & the possibility aid for jobless workers will run out. If Congress cares, the Fed view is clear.
6) The Fed is also talking about racism in a way I have never seen before – Powell bringing up racial equality in his testimony and Juneteenth today – has a chairman ever done that? And read @RaphaelBostic’s bold essay. These things don’t happen by accident at the central bank.
7) And of course the Fed should be on the defensive on diversity – with all of one African-American Fed president in 106 years, and embarrassingly little diversity on the board too. The record with women is a bit better -- Janet Yellen wast the last chair --but needs work too.
8)What’s next? Lots more Fedspeak and soon stress tests. The message from the Fed has been mostly not too worried about the banks, which are well capitalized compared to 2009 and not the cause of this crisis. The bank dividend question is an interesting one, though.
9) Oh yes, there's a coin shortage? Occasionally, there is some news that breaks out of the Fed chairman's hearings. And lots of questions on the long-delayed Main Street facility and a bit of skepticism about how much it will help. Stay tuned.
Next week, we should hear from Bullard, Evans, Bostic and Kaplan. A side ``benefit'' of the working-from-home trend is the Fed presidents are talking more, since they don't have to travel & can Zoom. That's all I have. Have a great weekend all!
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