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MS hosted v good call w/Jitse
Masa : Sprint
Jitse : $GRUB
I find busts in his logic and have revamped my winners/losers after listening to his strategy (thread)
Masa : Sprint
Jitse : $GRUB
I find busts in his logic and have revamped my winners/losers after listening to his strategy (thread)
A few things are clear to me:
-Maloney is out (he doesn’t yet realize)
-they plan to flip this to $UBER
-Jitse underestimates DoorDash
-Jitse underestimates the amt of capital UBER has (though whether dara is willing to be aggressive is a ?)
-Maloney is out (he doesn’t yet realize)
-they plan to flip this to $UBER
-Jitse underestimates DoorDash
-Jitse underestimates the amt of capital UBER has (though whether dara is willing to be aggressive is a ?)
For Jitse to be right, he’s banking on:
A. Uber deal (when he flips it) passes antitrust
B. Fee caps don’t remain permanent in NYC
C. His strategy working
A. Uber deal (when he flips it) passes antitrust
B. Fee caps don’t remain permanent in NYC
C. His strategy working
On A, experts pin it at 40%. Higher if he loses share in nyc !!! But then he flips it for less.
Also more likely to pass with fee caps !!! But then he flips it for less
Also more likely to pass with fee caps !!! But then he flips it for less
C. Jitse $GRUB strategy is pulling back non-profitable markets Maloney just expanded to and refocusing on NYC + East cost cities
That does sound smart. That doesn’t mean they will turn around market share
That does sound smart. That doesn’t mean they will turn around market share
For one, he seems to be flat out wrong on DoorDash / logistics model. Many mentions of DoorDash lighting money on fire being unsustainable... could he have given away 1/3rd of company not realizing DoorDash is actually breakeven?!!
Given b/e, how can you bank on “rationality”
Given b/e, how can you bank on “rationality”
He seems to underestimate just how much capital uber has and that the rides business makes $ (news to him).
Jitse says “if uber was to pull out of Holland bc of something JET does in the US, great”. That seems silly - if holland is a good investment, uber hardly lacks capital
Jitse says “if uber was to pull out of Holland bc of something JET does in the US, great”. That seems silly - if holland is a good investment, uber hardly lacks capital
Jitse still believes GRUB has a supply advantage: says you can sign up restaurants but they leave if no volume.
Don’t they just aggregate the aggregators on Olo, ChowNow etc etc.
Maybe doesn’t yet exist in Europe?
Don’t they just aggregate the aggregators on Olo, ChowNow etc etc.
Maybe doesn’t yet exist in Europe?
When asked when JET shareholders will make return on grub, says he started the company with €50 and IPO’ed for €1bn.
Ok but why this deal? Due to the above, Jitse has received the market’s blessing -> a v low cost of capital.
This all at risk (“we never blink”)...for what?
Ok but why this deal? Due to the above, Jitse has received the market’s blessing -> a v low cost of capital.
This all at risk (“we never blink”)...for what?
Multiple comments on consolidating US market and believing it will ultimately be 2 player -> which means a deal w/UBER is what they’re banking on
He tiptoes around Maloney but there’s clearly change coming.
He tiptoes around Maloney but there’s clearly change coming.
I expect deal to happen
Win:
$MS - v good call (send your bus) + 2x the banker fees in a year time
DoorDash - GRUB underestimates and pulling back / refocusing on core mkts
Lose:
JET baring miracle
Uber? Maybe costs them more, maybe costs them less. Deal just pushed out.
Win:
$MS - v good call (send your bus) + 2x the banker fees in a year time
DoorDash - GRUB underestimates and pulling back / refocusing on core mkts
Lose:
JET baring miracle
Uber? Maybe costs them more, maybe costs them less. Deal just pushed out.
