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I& #39;m excited to hear about @ARM disrupting laptops and desktops from @Apple next week! But I& #39;d also like to talk about how ARM is disrupting servers in datacenters, especially at @AWSCloud. It& #39;s eerily similar, just as profound, and similarly rooted in major @Intel missteps. 1/
This was triggered by @benthompson& #39;s excellent @stratechery posts on the subject Tuesday ( https://stratechery.com/2020/apple-arm-and-intel/)">https://stratechery.com/2020/appl... & Wednesday (if you don& #39;t subscribe, you should! https://stratechery.com/2020/xscale-and-arm-in-the-cloud-hey-versus-apple-apples-iap-campaign/).">https://stratechery.com/2020/xsca... Go read those first. I& #39;ll wait. Good? Good. Let& #39;s roll. 2/
By way of background, I& #39;m @AWSCloud& #39;s first customer, and I helped invent Internet co-location (aka Internet datacenters) in ~1993, hosting @ebay and more. I also write code regularly. I& #39;ve been doing this for awhile, and predicting these trends is a mjaor part of my job. 3/
Most importantly, we& #39;re using @ARM at large-scale, with production workloads, and have been doing so for years. Graviton2 from @AWSCloud most recently ( https://twitter.com/DonMacAskill/status/1260844055178571778),">https://twitter.com/DonMacAsk... but this isn& #39;t new for us. We predicted this trend more than 7 years ago. 4/
There are two big bucket topics @stratechery mentions with @ARM on servers. Let& #39;s call them "deployment" (cloud services & datacenters) and "development" (coding). Like everything in business, they both boil down to customers, revenue, & profit, but let& #39;s tease them apart. 5/
Re: "deployment", this is where things are really interesting. Everyone is aware of how advanced @Apple& #39;s ARM chips are, how much value they get from this "tight control of its entire stack", and how they got here ( @Intel wouldn& #39;t deliver the performance-per-watt needed). 6/
The exact same thing is happening on servers. @Intel has failed to deliver performance-per-dollar (aka per-watt) in a similar way. Out of necessity, companies like @AWSCloud have needed to innovate around this problem. ARM is the solution for them, just like it was for @Apple. 7/
Now, @AWSCloud has been building a tight stack for awhile. It began with custom networking, then extended to custom server hardware with Nitro, and now has moved to the next layer: CPUs. Much like @Apple each layer added to their bespoke stack delivers value & differentiation. 8/
This likely began with a simple ask to @Intel: "We need better perf-per-dollar". And like @Apple a decade earlier, Intel& #39;s products in the market the last few years suggest their answer was "No." Which opens up opportunity for @AWSCloud, one they& #39;re just beginning to maximize. 9/
What began as driving perf-per-$, now that it has arrived (~40% cheaper!), will again almost certainly mirror @Apple: @AWSCloud will begin adding differentiated value (features you can& #39;t get elsewhere) built-in to their own chips given they& #39;re now part of their tight stack. 10/
Put another way, the future generation @ARM instances from @AWSCloud will almost certainly not only be cheaper, but empirically better, and different, than their @Intel counterparts in a few generations. Apples-to-apples comparisons across cloud services will be harder. 11/
Not only that, but you won& #39;t be *able* to do apples-to-apples comparisons with servers, because these parts won& #39;t be available at retail. (Just like @AWSCloud custom switches and Nitro hardware aren& #39;t). Cloud services will be definitively *better* than on-premise datacenters. 12/
Note that that& #39;s largely a function of scale. The cloud providers (I& #39;m confident @Azure and @GCPcloud will follow suit) drive such significant chip volume (and growing!) that a competitive retail part (and innovation caliber) from others, given lower volumes, is unlikely. 13/
Let& #39;s pause for a reminder, dear reader, that this is eerily similar to @Apple and @Intel at the dawn of the iPhone. It& #39;s nearly the exact same story, with very similar problems from @Intel, opening up opportunities for those with the scale to tackle them. Ready for more? 14/
Re: "development" Linus Torvalds (creator of Linux) shared his opinion in 2019 about ARM-on-servers "That’s bullshit. If you develop on x86, then you’re going to want to deploy on x86" ( https://www.realworldtech.com/forum/?threadid=183440&curpostid=183486).">https://www.realworldtech.com/forum/... I disagree. Nearly every ARM app on iOS/Android is built on x86. 15/
The tooling (IDEs, compilers, emulation, containers, virtualization, etc) have gotten so good for developers this is basically a non-starter. Deploying to an ARM server isn& #39;t materially harder than deploying to an App Store. It& #39;s trivial even at large-scale production. 16/
Which means it& #39;s "just" a value problem. If enough developers see enough value in deploying to ARM, they will. Just like with iOS. With up to 40% cost savings (we& #39;re seeing ~this in large-scale production today), that& #39;s inevitable. Businesses will demand it. 17/
Re-framing Linus from "you& #39;ll happily pay a bit more for x86 cloud hosting" to "you& #39;ll happily pay 40% more for x86 cloud hosting" clarifies this. It seems unlikely that would make anyone happy. @ARM is here to stay on servers. And likely to win. /18
Finally, I owe much of the credit for this insight and a debt of gratitude to James Hamilton for this 2012 blog post which got me off the bench and onto "team @ARM" all those years ago. Even if I was a little too early. Better too early than too late. https://perspectives.mvdirona.com/2012/10/amd-announces-server-targeted-arm-part/">https://perspectives.mvdirona.com/2012/10/a... /end
