Thread by @Jim_Edwards, Hello! Here's my daily thread on coronavirus stats globally.Today:

Hello! Here's my daily thread on coronavirus stats globally.

Today:

- Deaths rising globally.
- US: Why are deaths going down when cases are going up?
- Chile: Now in top 10.
- Common problem: Getting infection rates down is easy. getting them to zero is hard.

The big picture: Deaths rising again globally.

New cases still rising across the planet.

Top 10 countries by total cases has a new entrant - Chile at No.9. (Deaths remain low in Chile.)

Chile: New cases peaked at just over 7.5K per day.

Deaths are over 200 per day but obviously there seem to be some data collections issues here.

Singapore is lifting its lockdown, partially, and here is why: solid decline in new cases.

Singapore had an extremely small number of deaths, only 26 in total.

Indonesia: New cases heading sharply upward to 1500 per day.

Deaths are climbing steadily at more than 60 per day.

Czechia was an early adopter of masks and has been proud of its response. The peak of new cases in late March was swiftly driven down.

But look how stubborn new cases are — they just won't go to zero and yesterday saw a spike.

Deaths: Extremely low, only 334 in total.

The US: Uh-oh. New cases are still climbing.

1.2 million Americans are sick right now.

And yet deaths continue to fall.

This is a mystery.

Although deaths are a lagging indicator we have yet to see them turn upward.

Arizona: "Out of control".

[Chart via Pantheon]

Ian Shepherdson from Pantheon says:

"Hospitalizations per capita in the South remain far lower than at the peak in New York, and they are very unlikely to reach that level...but between the current rising trend and the eventual peak...lies a great deal of sickness and death."

South America mobility trends from Google: This is a disaster because COVID is not under control in these countries. [via Capital Economics]

Brazil: Deaths have settled into that plateau.

India: New cases still rising steeply. Nowhere near the peak.

Peru: Deaths appear to be near the peak.

Iran: Second wave of cases was worse than the first — more people got sick.

Iran: Will the second wave of deaths be as bad? Already more than halfway there.

UK: 20 or more journalists have been killed by COVID. Here's a tribute to them. https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/in-memoriam-remembering-journalism-industry-colleagues-who-died-of-covid-19/

In memoriam: Remembering journalism industry colleagues who died of Covid-19 - Press Gazette

With the offical UK coronavirus death now well past 40,000, we remember the names of those journalists – both current and former – who have died from the virus. As key workers, journalists have...

https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/in-memoriam-remembering-journalism-industry-colleagues-who-died-of-covid-19/

UK: Estimated number of people with COVID in England.

UK. New cases down to about 1200 per day.

The government has lowered the "alert" level from 4 to 3. It was “high or exponentially rising”. Now Covid-19 is ranked as “in general circulation”.

UK deaths still declining but the rate of decline has slowed.

The UK is a good example of the problem:

- it is relatively easy to drive down infection levels.
- It is very difficult to drive down infection levels to zero.

Others:

Spain: good

Italy: good

France: good

Germany: good

China: good

S Korea: good

Vietnam: good.

Japan: good.

NZ: Perfect.

Australia: Good.

Look up your own country at Worldometers. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Ranked by deaths the US has done well - so far.

But the countries above the US have declining new case rates. The US case rate is still rising. It was once under 19K per day. It's now 26K per day.

That suggests there is room for the US to get worse.

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