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We've published our report into why Labour lost the 2019 election (and the 3 before that). I'll post highlights and a link to the report below. /1
For the quick version there's a good write up here in @HuffPostUK courtesy of @paulwaugh: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-nhs-nurses-pledge-red-wall-inquest_uk_5eeb7e4ec5b6c8594c7f3454?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics
We've published our report into why Labour lost the 2019 election (and the 3 before that). I'll post highlights and a link to the report below. /1
For the quick version there's a good write up here in @HuffPostUK courtesy of @paulwaugh: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-nhs-nurses-pledge-red-wall-inquest_uk_5eeb7e4ec5b6c8594c7f3454?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics
The detail. Far from losing only Leave voters, Labour lost as many Remain voters to Remain parties as it did Leave voters to Leave parties. In contrast the Tories kept most of their Leave and Remain voters - the latter were more scared of a Corbyn Govt than hard Brexit. /2
Labour 'lost' the Red Wall in 2010 before the Tories 'won' it in 2019. Labour lost large numbers of votes in these seats in 2010 - but voters went to 3rd parties. It was not until 2019 that they went the whole way to vote Tory. The problem is far deeper than Corbyn and Brexit. /3
Labour Leave (i.e. 2016 Leave, 2017 Labour) voters are entirely different to Tory Leave voters. A mammoth 76% of Tory Leave voters listed getting Brexit done as a top priority - compared to 29% of Labour Leavers. The latter were more attracted by pledges on the NHS and police. /4
68% of Labour Leave voters had the NHS as a top priority. The Tories won their votes from Labour far more with 50k nurses, 40 hospitals and 20k police officers than with Brexit. /5
Data: https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-GE-2019-post-vote-poll-Full-tables.xlsx
and: https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/how-britain-voted-and-why-my-2019-general-election-post-vote-poll/
Data: https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-GE-2019-post-vote-poll-Full-tables.xlsx
and: https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/how-britain-voted-and-why-my-2019-general-election-post-vote-poll/
The number one reason for not voting Labour among all voters - including Labour switchers to both Lib Dems and Tories - was the leadership and Jeremy Corbyn. /6 https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1205510937995812864?s=20
Corbyn was the least popular leader of a major party heading into an election since that data was first recorded. Brutal. /9
https://www.ft.com/content/27fed46f-f5f0-3fb9-9456-5fc00d0931d7
https://www.ft.com/content/27fed46f-f5f0-3fb9-9456-5fc00d0931d7
Johnson was seen as more likeable - and rather incredibly - trustworthy than Jeremy Corbyn. I guess voters didn't know him too well back then. /10
https://www.ft.com/content/f799e14e-0ae8-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67
https://www.ft.com/content/f799e14e-0ae8-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67
The problems go back further. Labour had - long before Corbyn and Brexit - failed to adjust to changes in voting habits. Class has become less important, while age, housing tenure and education have become more important. Labour has not compensated. /11
https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f
https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f
Here's the Labour vote by social class 1970-2019. The change was obvious way before 2019.
Here's @PeterKellner1 writing on this in 2010: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2011/05/16/labour-not-just-party-working-class
/12
Here's @PeterKellner1 writing on this in 2010: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2011/05/16/labour-not-just-party-working-class
/12
The age dynamic has become incredibly important in the last 10, and particularly the last 5, years. Again, Labour has not responded. It could have led in 2019 with a cast iron commitment on social care, instead we got broadband. /13
https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f
https://www.ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f
This is made even worse for Labour by the fact that younger people are moving to cities - where they vote Labour in safe seats but towns become marginals or Tory seats as a result. /14
https://www.centrefortowns.org/reports/the-ageing-of-our-towns
https://www.centrefortowns.org/reports/the-ageing-of-our-towns
Scotland is a huge issue. Labour lost half its Scottish vote between 2010 and 2015 under Ed Miliband, and a further 200k votes 2017-2019, yet there has been no concerted attempt to recover or a detailed report into its 2014-15 loss of support. /15
Labour lost 10% of its support in Scotland between June and October 2014. It has never returned.
This from @PeterKellner1 in 2014 is a good read: /16 https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2014/10/31/labours-scottish-nightmare
This from @PeterKellner1 in 2014 is a good read: /16 https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2014/10/31/labours-scottish-nightmare
The 2019 election campaign didn't help. The Tories' campaign needed just 4 catchphrases to be understood: Get Brexit Done, 20k police, 50k nurses, 40 hospitals. Labour had a wealth of good policies - but no theme, coherence or clarity. A tragic error. /17
Meanwhile Labour had no clarity on the issue of the election - Brexit. Polls in late 2018 had shown that if Labour backed a 2nd ref they would be in contention to win an election. /18 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-back-second-referendum-gain-power-general-election-polls-a8547676.html
But Labour squandered its chance - by prevaricating for almost a year many voters gave up. Labour's partial recovery in the election campaign was nowhere near enough. /19
https://www.ft.com/content/263615ca-d873-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
https://www.ft.com/content/263615ca-d873-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
Labour cannot argue that it was in an impossible position on Brexit. Just like Labour, the Tory voter base was split between Leave and Remain voters. But they picked a side. They consolidated the Leave vote (killing UKIP/BXP) and even retained most of their Remainers,... /20
who were more terrified of Team Corbyn than they were a hard Brexit. In contrast Labour failed to convince its Remain voter base that it was really on their side, meaning it needlessly lost votes to the SNP and Lib Dems, as well as losing Leavers to the Tories. /21
Those who say that Labour was wrong to back a 2nd ref fail to recognise that had Labour not done so it would have lost far more Remainers to the Lib Dems and SNP.
To win Labour needed to consolidate Remainers and keep Leavers with clarity on the NHS and crime. It did neither. /22
To win Labour needed to consolidate Remainers and keep Leavers with clarity on the NHS and crime. It did neither. /22
There is more in the report about what Labour needs to do to win next time - including prioritise Scotland, understand what happened in the Red Wall (over 10+ years, not 4), have specific offers on the NHS and crime / police, and have a popular leader. /23
To end on a positive note, Labour has more seats now (203) than the Tories had in 2005 (198). More importantly, in Keir Starmer they have the most popular Opposition leader since Tony Blair. Labour has a long way to go - but it can win in 2024. /24 https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/keir-starmer-most-popular-opposition-leader-since-tony-blair-new-poll-finds
If you've made it this far huge thanks. Hopefully some of this was new and / or interesting.
Roll on 2024.
The full report - with more detail on all points raised - is here: /end
https://www.laboureuropeanfuture.org/UserFiles/File/Lessons_for_Labour_150620.pdf
Roll on 2024.
The full report - with more detail on all points raised - is here: /end
https://www.laboureuropeanfuture.org/UserFiles/File/Lessons_for_Labour_150620.pdf
