Graphs via @nataliexdean indeed worrisome

Big increases in 4 states

Ah, you say, but isn’t this all just from more testing?

How can we know?

Well, we can examine two key metrics that will help

% of tests that are positive

# of hospitalizations (lagging indicator)

Thread https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1273783198082711552">https://twitter.com/nataliexd...

So how do these 4 states do on these metrics?

Let’s compare data from today (6/18) vs 2 weeks ago (6/4) from @covidtracking

Arizona
6/4: 9.9% positive 1079 hospitalized
6/18: 18.6% positive 1667 hospitalized

2/4

Florida
6/4: 5.4% positive
6/18: 12.6% positive

No current hospitalizations data in FL

North Carolina
6/4: 6.2% positive, 659 hospitalized
6/18: 5.1% positive, 857 hospitalized

Texas
6/4: 5.2% positive, 1796 hospitalized
6/18: 9.2% positive, 2947 hospitalized

3/4

So % positive has gone up a lot in AZ, FL, and TX

(flat in NC)

Hospitalizations have risen a bunch in AZ, NC, TX

(no data for FL)

So -- this is very strong evidence that the large increases we are seeing across these 4 states are not due to testing alone.

4/5

During this entire pandemic, has been tempting to look at concerning developments and find most favorable explanation.

We& #39;re doing that again by saying its all due to testing.

Its not.

We have to make more efforts to get cases in these and other states under control

Fin