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Good morning! It's Friday today & just want to say have a great weekend as it's looking like it'll be glorious in HK. Below is @Trinhnomics latest for the @CarnegieEndow on Vietnam & its ambition to develop & why it needscontinue to work harder to upgrade domestic capability! 
https://twitter.com/CarnegieEndow/status/1273612333428981760
https://twitter.com/CarnegieEndow/status/1273612333428981760
*needs to continue to work harder
Typed too fast & furious
Typed too fast & furious
Updating my job title to:
@Trinhnomics : Emerging Asia Economist by day and moon lighting as a: Millennial economist in my spare time, pro bono obvs
.
Seriously though, concerned about my generation's future & will continue to update w/ facts on how we can do better!
@Trinhnomics : Emerging Asia Economist by day and moon lighting as a: Millennial economist in my spare time, pro bono obvs
.Seriously though, concerned about my generation's future & will continue to update w/ facts on how we can do better!
Just read the article and I think it looks pretty good (the charts that are edited by the @CarnegieEndow team are off the chart good 
). Make sure you read it!!! https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/18/is-vietnam-eating-into-china-s-share-of-manufacturing-pub-82094
). Make sure you read it!!! https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/18/is-vietnam-eating-into-china-s-share-of-manufacturing-pub-82094
The push out to diversify out of China finds a home in Vietnam but it is limited by Vietnam's scale. Vietnam can attract only a limited share of the firms looking for an alternative to China’s rising costs & will leave more of the pie available to other economies in Asia & beyond
While Vietnam is youthful now, in time, it will age & that means that its cheap wage comparative advantage will wane in the future & why we argue that it needs to be even more aggressive in moving up the value chain & has no time to rest on its laurel.
Vietnam's exports have expanded faster than Asia's regional average & risen so much that it is now above the Philippines, Indonesia & on par with Malaysia and Thailand.
That said, Vietnam's gross export might is dominated by foreign investors & domestic firms need to step up!
That said, Vietnam's gross export might is dominated by foreign investors & domestic firms need to step up!
If you break down Vietnam exports by value chain (yes, I am going to make GVC sexy), then you can see that it is very dominated by foreign value add, meaning imported intermediates to make final good exports.
That said, domestic value added is rising! And even DVX!
), then you can see that it is very dominated by foreign value add, meaning imported intermediates to make final good exports.That said, domestic value added is rising! And even DVX!
What is DVX you ask? Well, it stands for domestic exports of intermediates used by others as input for their exports. So the more you have, the more u gain from global trade!
FVA = foreign value-added (foreign inputs for exports).
While FVA > DVX, good news is BOTH HAVE RISEN
FVA = foreign value-added (foreign inputs for exports).
While FVA > DVX, good news is BOTH HAVE RISEN
Evolution of foreign value added of gross exports as a share of Vietnam's GDP. Meaning, when Vietnam exports more of its goods, foreign investors are also gaining!
That is good (meaning not just Vietnam gaining from trade) but also reflects weakness of Vietnamese domestic firms.
That is good (meaning not just Vietnam gaining from trade) but also reflects weakness of Vietnamese domestic firms.
And then u may ask the question, who are these foreign investors/exporters gaining from Vietnam's rise in global trade???
Well, the usual suspect: China, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and Taiwan.
And Vietnam is more integrated w/ China, Asia ex China & the world through trade!
Well, the usual suspect: China, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and Taiwan.
And Vietnam is more integrated w/ China, Asia ex China & the world through trade!
This is the killer chart of Vietnam gaining the most export market share in Asia in the past 5 years.
Thanks to its massive growth (& prioritization) of manufacturing FDI. It has provided steady capital inflows (hence VND not volatile), plenty of jobs, & a chance to up skill!
Thanks to its massive growth (& prioritization) of manufacturing FDI. It has provided steady capital inflows (hence VND not volatile), plenty of jobs, & a chance to up skill!
Despite short-comings, Vietnam has made significant progress & one that it needs to continue to press on. The EU-Vietnam FTA will be a game changer that'll improve access & investment. That said, we think that Vietnam can & must do more to improve linkages w/ global supply chain!
Read the article here. It is the most popular at the moment on the @CarnegieEndow website :-)
https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/18/is-vietnam-eating-into-china-s-share-of-manufacturing-pub-82094
https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/18/is-vietnam-eating-into-china-s-share-of-manufacturing-pub-82094
