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Once again, we get a superficial take on a very stupid prediction.
In this video, there's no analysis of the EARLIER predictions that Professor Munchkin made before the current NON-INSTABILITY.
Once again, we get a superficial take on a very stupid prediction.
In this video, there's no analysis of the EARLIER predictions that Professor Munchkin made before the current NON-INSTABILITY.
We need SOBER ANALYSIS, not knee-jerk fear mongering.
What did Professor Munchkin say on November 17, 2016, BEFORE TRUMP WAS EVEN INAUGURATED?
What did Professor Munchkin say on November 17, 2016, BEFORE TRUMP WAS EVEN INAUGURATED?
First of all, Professor Munchkin a quack.
He practices "cliodynamics," a pseudoscience that reduces the past to data points.
No attempt is made to balance for SOCIAL FORMATIONS.
The year 1718 is seen as being identical to the year 2020.
He practices "cliodynamics," a pseudoscience that reduces the past to data points.
No attempt is made to balance for SOCIAL FORMATIONS.
The year 1718 is seen as being identical to the year 2020.
So you can see immediately that everything Professor Munchkin says is garbage.
THERE ARE NO GENERALIZATIONS THAT CAN APPLY TO INDIVIDUAL HISTORICAL EVENTS.
In the past, shooting someone dead was accepted behavior for being insulted.
THERE ARE NO GENERALIZATIONS THAT CAN APPLY TO INDIVIDUAL HISTORICAL EVENTS.
In the past, shooting someone dead was accepted behavior for being insulted.
On to the professor's prediction made on November 17, 2016.
"My model tracks a number of factors. Some reflect the developments that have been noticed and extensively discussed: growing income and wealth inequality, stagnating and even declining well-being of most Americans, growing political fragmentation and governmental dysfunction."
"There is another important development that has been missed by most commentators: the key role of 'elite overproduction' in driving waves of political violence."
"Increasing inequality leads not only to the growth of top fortunes; it also results in greater numbers of wealth-holders. The 1 percent becomes 2 percent. In technical terms, such a situation is known as 'elite overproduction.'"
"Elite overproduction generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually undermines the spirit of cooperation, which is followed by ideological polarization and fragmentation of the political class."
"This happens because the more contenders there are, the more of them end up on the losing side. A large class of disgruntled elite-wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable, has been denied access to elite positions."
LITERALLY NONER OF THAT HAPPENED IN TRUMP'S FIRST TERM.
In fact the OPPOSITE happened.
The DEMOCRATS imploded.
Nobody else.
What we're seeing now IS NOT VIOLENCE. It's vandalism and appeasement.
In fact the OPPOSITE happened.
The DEMOCRATS imploded.
Nobody else.
What we're seeing now IS NOT VIOLENCE. It's vandalism and appeasement.
Professor Munchkin said that by now, political MURDERS will have surpassed the political murders of the 1970s.
WELL?!
And SURPRISE!
The civil war will be...TRUMP'S FAULT.
WELL?!
And SURPRISE!
The civil war will be...TRUMP'S FAULT.
"This was written when Donald Trump was known only as a real estate mogul and reality show host; well before this presidential election characterized by an unprecedented collapse of social norms governing civilized discourse—'epic ugliness', said New York Times's Frank Bruni."
So Professor Munchkin uses the pseudoscience of cliodynamics, and says that the civil war will by caused the tweets of @realDonaldTrump
Tim Pool, old buddy: I like you a lot. But you're scraping the bottom of the barrel to justify your refusal to vote for Trump.
Tim Pool, old buddy: I like you a lot. But you're scraping the bottom of the barrel to justify your refusal to vote for Trump.
Let's look at more Professor Munchkin quackery:
"The Republican Party is in the process of splitting up into three factions: Traditional Republicans, Tea Party Republicans, and Trump Populists."
Nope.
"The Republican Party is in the process of splitting up into three factions: Traditional Republicans, Tea Party Republicans, and Trump Populists."
Nope.
"Similar disintegrative forces have also been at work within the Democratic Party, with a major fault line dividing Bernie Sanders’ Democratic Socialists from the Establishment Democrats of Obama and Clinton."
Nope.
The Democrats unified around the nutters.
Nope.
The Democrats unified around the nutters.
"But the other two factors in the model, popular immiseration (the stagnation and decline of living standards) and declining fiscal health of the nation (resulting from falling revenues and rising expenses) are also important contributors."
"From what I have seen so far, it seems unlikely that the Trump administration will succeed in reversing these negative trends."
"And some of the proposed policies will likely make them worse. For example, drastically reducing taxes on the wealthy Americans will hardly strengthen fiscal health of the state."
Now, am I reading it wrong, was this slop written on November 17, 2016?
Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2017.
This imbecile had written off Trump BEFORE HE EVEN TOOK OFFICE.
But we're supposed to respect his opinions NOW?!
Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2017.
This imbecile had written off Trump BEFORE HE EVEN TOOK OFFICE.
But we're supposed to respect his opinions NOW?!
He says that Aunt Jemima protests will lead us to civil war.
Does anybody even know about the terrorism in the US in the 1970s to early 1980s?
In an 18-month period during 1971-72, we had 2500 bombings. Five a day.
HOW MANY BOMBINGS TODAY?
Does anybody even know about the terrorism in the US in the 1970s to early 1980s?
In an 18-month period during 1971-72, we had 2500 bombings. Five a day.
HOW MANY BOMBINGS TODAY?
A bomb went off in a theater in the Bronx during the playing of the film The Liberation of L.B. Jones.
The cops came in and ordered everyone to leave.
THE AUDIENCE REFUSED.
They wanted to see the end of the movie.
When police tried to use force, the crowd fought back.
The cops had to wait until the movie ended because the manager ALSO wanted to finish the movie.
THE AUDIENCE REFUSED.
They wanted to see the end of the movie.
When police tried to use force, the crowd fought back.
The cops had to wait until the movie ended because the manager ALSO wanted to finish the movie.
NO CIVIL WAR.
But Professor Munchkin is predicting civil war over maple syrup and tweets.
HE THINKS WE'RE ALL SAVAGES.
Do YOU, Tim Pool? Is that your fatal flaw? You feel contempt for your fellow human?
Tim, I'M A HERMIT and I don't dismiss everyone as savages.
But Professor Munchkin is predicting civil war over maple syrup and tweets.
HE THINKS WE'RE ALL SAVAGES.
Do YOU, Tim Pool? Is that your fatal flaw? You feel contempt for your fellow human?
Tim, I'M A HERMIT and I don't dismiss everyone as savages.
So let's look at Professor Munchkin's ravings about today.
"Turchin says societal crises, which are triggered when pent-up pressures seek an outlet, can typically last for five to 15 years."
"Turchin says societal crises, which are triggered when pent-up pressures seek an outlet, can typically last for five to 15 years."
"As millions of Americans remain jobless, Turchin says there will be other triggers after this. He worries tensions 'may escalate all the way to a civil war.'"
THAT'S IT.
"I worry that there will be civil war."
That is LITERALLY all he says.
Let ME explain the causes of civil wars:
"I worry that there will be civil war."
That is LITERALLY all he says.
Let ME explain the causes of civil wars:
A government is so repressive that finally the citizens rise up and are joined by a significant percentage of the armed forces.
Or.
A significant section of a country secedes and is joined by a significant percentage of the armed forces.
Or.
A significant section of a country secedes and is joined by a significant percentage of the armed forces.
Or.
Two political ideologies in the same country go to war, one side supported by the national armed forces and the other supported by foreign powers.
Two political ideologies in the same country go to war, one side supported by the national armed forces and the other supported by foreign powers.
Or.
Multiple ethnic groups or religious sects go to war, all supported by both the shattered national armed forces and foreign countries.
Multiple ethnic groups or religious sects go to war, all supported by both the shattered national armed forces and foreign countries.
Or.
An unpopular government asks for military help from a foreign power, and other foreign powers arm insurgencies.
Or.
A government collapses, and multiple ethnic, ideological, or sectarian groups fight each other for power.
An unpopular government asks for military help from a foreign power, and other foreign powers arm insurgencies.
Or.
A government collapses, and multiple ethnic, ideological, or sectarian groups fight each other for power.
That's pretty much it for modern civil wars.
The US doesn't fit ANY MODEL FOR A CIVIL WAR.
Every single person predicting a civil war is an ahistorical boob.
They're surface skaters. Fantasists.
THESE PROTESTS ARE MASS HYSTERIA, NOT A REVOLUTION.
The US doesn't fit ANY MODEL FOR A CIVIL WAR.
Every single person predicting a civil war is an ahistorical boob.
They're surface skaters. Fantasists.
THESE PROTESTS ARE MASS HYSTERIA, NOT A REVOLUTION.
If every cop in the country quits, Trump just sends in the National Guard.
We already wiped out the professional urban terrorists.
Professor Munchkin does know anything about Trump. He's delusional.
We already wiped out the professional urban terrorists.
Professor Munchkin does know anything about Trump. He's delusional.
Cognitive rigidity is a sign of MASSIVE psychological issues, some of them quite serious.
"Cognitive Rigidity does not occur in isolation. Rather, Mother Nature 'bundles' cognitive rigidity with a suite of other traits and behaviors."
"Find one of these traits or behaviors, and you’ll frequently find the rest of them lurking about — either within the individual or within other members of that individual’s family."
"The big killers (literally as well as metaphorically): Anxiety, Depression, and Suicidality. Like agitation, aggression and self-injurious behavior, anxiety, depression and suicidality are not direct expressions of Cognitive Rigidity."
"Rather, they represent either associated neuropsychological traits (because of the way the brain is wired) or downstream consequences."
The healthiest thing you can do is be open minded.
Be ready to change your mind when the facts don't fit your current notions.
Trump wins because of his enemies' cognitive rigidity.
We need to hear LESS from and about the loons.
They aren't helpful.
END
Be ready to change your mind when the facts don't fit your current notions.
Trump wins because of his enemies' cognitive rigidity.
We need to hear LESS from and about the loons.
They aren't helpful.
END
