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There's going to be a *lot* to say about this report. Going to take it very slowly.
I have to say, I'm a real skeptic of the way of thinking that revolves around comparing everything to the previous election, concluding the swing is too big to win next time (in 2024).
I have to say, I'm a real skeptic of the way of thinking that revolves around comparing everything to the previous election, concluding the swing is too big to win next time (in 2024).
The swingometer has completely ruined the framing of how we think about elections. It's infuriating.
Let me explain.
In every election, coalitions of voters flock to parties, responding to a range of factors, chiefly policy, and valence issues (competence, leadership etc)
Let me explain.
In every election, coalitions of voters flock to parties, responding to a range of factors, chiefly policy, and valence issues (competence, leadership etc)
In the most basic terms, we lost in 2019 because what we were offering did not appeal to many people.
We were weak on 'valence issues', we did not have a favoured position on the key issue of the day, etc.
We lost in 2019 because of those circumstances.
We were weak on 'valence issues', we did not have a favoured position on the key issue of the day, etc.
We lost in 2019 because of those circumstances.
The only reason why 2019 is necessarily correlated with our 2024 result is if those circumstances still apply in 2024.
If we have made the changes required, then we can win in 2024.
It doesn't matter much how low of a base you're starting from.
If we have made the changes required, then we can win in 2024.
It doesn't matter much how low of a base you're starting from.
If it did, then perhaps someone can explain how the Tories went from 18% to 45% between May and December 2019.
They adapted to the circumstances, shot the Brexit party fox, did everything they needed to do to win.
They adapted to the circumstances, shot the Brexit party fox, did everything they needed to do to win.
And you know what?
So. Can. We.
So. Can. We.
Don't believe me?
Check out this article - there is no autocorrelation of results from one election to the next.
That is, "that there is no convincing evidence of serial autocorrelation between general election results over the last century....
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/05/18/how-steep-is-starmers-mountain/
Check out this article - there is no autocorrelation of results from one election to the next.
That is, "that there is no convincing evidence of serial autocorrelation between general election results over the last century....
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/05/18/how-steep-is-starmers-mountain/
...i.e. losing after a landslide victory could be just as likely as losing a majority of 2. "
Indeed, it concludes:
"it’s all to play for in 2024. That Labour has to overturn forbiddingly huge majorities in Tory seats is less important than many think."
Indeed, it concludes:
"it’s all to play for in 2024. That Labour has to overturn forbiddingly huge majorities in Tory seats is less important than many think."
Assessing our prospects for 2024 based on our result in 2019 frankly reflects a narrow perspective.
Yes, it would require a 10 point swing, yes that is a big change from now.
But you'll be building a fundamentally different coalition. Circumstances changed.
Yes, it would require a 10 point swing, yes that is a big change from now.
But you'll be building a fundamentally different coalition. Circumstances changed.
The distribution of our voters will also change if we're appealing to the people we need to be winning over - leave voters, socially conservative voters, older voters.
These voters are disproportionately concentrated in those marginal seats we need to win.
These voters are disproportionately concentrated in those marginal seats we need to win.
And if you improve that distribution, you don't need a swing quite as big in any case.
It does my head in when people frame the debate in this way.
The swingometer was developed to help people understand what was going on during election night.
It does my head in when people frame the debate in this way.
The swingometer was developed to help people understand what was going on during election night.
It is not meant to represent the boundaries of what is possible in politics.
Politics does not exist in a black box.
Politics does not exist in a black box.
TL;DR: If you think Labour's 2019 result writes off 2024, your understanding of voters and elections is shallow.
Also, if you are that person, maybe go look up '2015 Canadian Federal Election' on Wikipedia. Or even '1945 UK general election'.
Also, if you are that person, maybe go look up '2015 Canadian Federal Election' on Wikipedia. Or even '1945 UK general election'.
P.S. not having a go at the writers of the report - it's a great report and I don't think they're implying what I'm saying here.
But wanted to give some reflections on this because it's a very common misconception.
But wanted to give some reflections on this because it's a very common misconception.
