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Evidence-based ideas 4EU policy options re #Syria ahead of Brussels-IV departing from 'max pressure':
A new EU strategy https://bit.ly/37GaIUR @SWP_MEA
Society max https://bit.ly/3hAt1PX @jbdacey
Options 4dealing w Assad regime https://bit.ly/3fF4jvI by @Olivia_Macharis +me
A new EU strategy https://bit.ly/37GaIUR @SWP_MEA
Society max https://bit.ly/3hAt1PX @jbdacey
Options 4dealing w Assad regime https://bit.ly/3fF4jvI by @Olivia_Macharis +me
Different shades of grey, but common problem analysis:
1. Regime defeated initial uprising
2. No major concessions on offer
3. Regime not about 2fall
4. Externalities will grow
Bit more on each in next 4 tweets
1. Regime defeated initial uprising
2. No major concessions on offer
3. Regime not about 2fall
4. Externalities will grow
Bit more on each in next 4 tweets
Ad 1. With the result its hands are soaked in blood, liable to internationally prosecuted and indebted to #Russia + #Iran.
Little incentive 2compromise as this would put it on a sliding slope that is risky.
Little incentive 2compromise as this would put it on a sliding slope that is risky.
Ad 2. No concessions on offer because:
a) regime has control over means of coercion;
b) its allies back it 2the hilt (despite Russian grumbles; #Iran won't budge during US confrontation);
c) generates sufficient revenue 2keep standing (illicit +war economy)
a) regime has control over means of coercion;
b) its allies back it 2the hilt (despite Russian grumbles; #Iran won't budge during US confrontation);
c) generates sufficient revenue 2keep standing (illicit +war economy)
Ad. 3 see above + #CaesarAct not likely 2effect regime revenue sufficiently:
- Look at the last 2 yrs of sanctions on #Iran or #Iraq in the 90s: Hussein did fine while #Iraqi's were starving
- The current economic free fall is not primarily the result of sanctions
- Look at the last 2 yrs of sanctions on #Iran or #Iraq in the 90s: Hussein did fine while #Iraqi's were starving
- The current economic free fall is not primarily the result of sanctions
Ad 4. The security, civil and economic practices of the regime, i.e. cronyism, corruption, extortion, torture..., will cause more #Syrians 2flee, increase regional instability, more radicalization etc.
We analyse externalities here: https://bit.ly/3eleshe @Clingendaelorg
We analyse externalities here: https://bit.ly/3eleshe @Clingendaelorg
