By my estimation, the 'R' number has gone above 1 (1.07) across the UK (confidence interval of 0.8-1.34). This is due to the fact that hospital admissions in England, Wales and Northern Ireland were 490 on the latest reported day, compared to 458 one week earlier.

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Here are my estimates* for England, Wales and Northern Ireland individually (note: I can't estimate Scotland as the data given for Scotland lags by a week).

England: 1.05 (0.79-1.31)
Wales: 1.11 (0.84-1.39)
Northern Ireland: 1.16 (0.87-1.45)

*Important caveats in next tweet

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Caveats: I'm not an epidemiologist or scientist. All I've got to work with is the data that the government provide at the daily Press Briefings. Additionally, these estimates provide a snapshot of the situation around 10-14 days ago. There is also day-to-day variation.

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However, this can still be very useful to look at trends, and the weekly change in admissions is now falling very slowly, or potentially even rising (as it did today). Thankfully, we aren't seeing particularly large increases, but its definitely something to keep an eye on.

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If anyone has any questions or suggestions, please let me know. ENDS.