So a few thoughts on the long-suffering Mountain Strike Corps. I would be surprised if we see movement toward them in the coming years, despite this current episode substantially increasing the perception of the China threat within the Indian establishment. A few points: 1/n https://twitter.com/BibhuRoutray/status/1273602015860420611

(1) The Mountain Strike Corps was very attractive to the Indian Army because it would allow the Indian Army to strike where and when it wanted. The problem is to achieve its military objectives, it almost certainly would involve the threat of substantial escalation. 2/n

(2) In the Kargil war, the Indian Army has always said that if it couldn't push the Pakistan Army intrusion back to the LoC it would consider opening another front. But civilians were hesitant. Civilians are hesitant to escalate, especially in land warfare! 3/n

(3) The Mountain Strike Corps essentially seeks to "deter by punishment" any Chinese intrusion. If China takes Finger 8 to Finger 4, then it might have to face a big fight elsewhere. But a big fight is costly and small intrusions are not as costly, even if embarrassing. 4/n

(4) So how do you prevent "salami slicing", little land grabs on the border, if you don't threaten punishment in response. You "deter by denial"--which India knows well, because this is basically what happened along the Line of Control. Lots of posts. No room for incursion. 5/n

(5) I suspect Indian leaders will be attracted to "deterrence by denial" along the border but the problem is that will involve lots of troops in forward positions. And that will fritter away manpower that could be used for a Mountain Strike Corps. 6/n

(6) Add to this the very real possibility that the Indian economy could face a prolonged period of slow or even negative growth, generating a wave of austerity. I don't think you can "turn the LAC into the LOC" AND raise a Mountain Strike Corps. 7/n

(7) Just as India's armored strike corps in the west were unable to deter Kargil, I'm skeptical Mountain Strike Corps would deter a future Pangong/Hot Spring/Galwan. Hence, the Mountain Strike Corps will likely remain an Army dream. Maybe I'll be wrong. Let's see. n/n