1/ Yesterday the Pentagon released a new Defense Space Strategy (DSS) that is meant to guide national security space decisions for the next decade ( https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jun/17/2002317391/-1/-1/1/2020_DEFENSE_SPACE_STRATEGY_SUMMARY.PDF) Short thread with my initial reactions

2/ TL;DR I found the new "strategy" to be underwhelming. It repeats a lot of the same rhetoric on threats & restoring American "leadership" we've heard for the last three years but doesn't provide any more clarity on HOW it will do those things

3/ I think it's best to examine the new "strategy" by comparing it to the previous one, the 2011 National Space Security Strategy (NSSS): https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/2011_nationalsecurityspacestrategy.pdf

4/ The 2011 NSSS focused on space becoming more "congested, contested, and competitive", i.e. growing counterspace threats & orbital debris and shrinking US advantage

5/ New 2020 DSS focuses a lot on "warfighting" and restoring "superiority" in space but beneath that mentions many of the same trends

6/ Side note - the new DSS asserts Russia and China have "weaponized space", which is rather ironic for two reasons.

7/ First, the Bush Admin argued in 2008 that there was no arms race in space going on & so there was no need to consider space arms control that could have prevented/slowed the ASAT systems Russia and China now have operational https://2001-2009.state.gov/t/vci/rls/rm/101711.htm

8/ Second, it is still the position of the Trump Admin that the US cannot verify whether a weapon has been tested in orbit or differentiate between a weapon and non-weapon behavior in orbit, so how does it know there are space weapons? https://geneva.usmission.gov/2018/08/14/remarks-by-assistant-secretary-yleem-d-s-poblete-at-the-conference-on-disarmament/

9/ But anyways, back to our thread! The 2011 NSSS outlined three objectives

10/ The 2020 DSS echoes some of those same themes but in more aggressive language and more of narrow focus on military strength

11/ The 2011 NSSS also had a more holistic DIME methodology in its strategic approaches

12/ The 2020 DSS remixes a lot of those same themes with slightly more aggressive language and more of a military focus

13/ Both strategies put the most emphasis on deterring attacks in space and I think this is where the 2020 DSS falls short the most. It doesn't provide any coherent approach for HOW the US will achieve deterrence

14/ The 2011 NSSS outlined several major approaches to deterrence, including public diplomacy, norms of behavior, better attribution, and improving resiliency of US space systems

15/ By contrast the 2020 DSS says it will deter attacks (including against commercial systems!) but handwaves how it will actually do that

16/ The #1 question every reporter and policy wonk should be publicly asking the Pentagon is "how will you deter China/Russia from attacking or interfering with US satellites during a Taiwan Straits/Baltics conflict."

17/ One other difference - the 2011 NSSS was a joint effort by the DOD and IC. The 2020 DSS appears to be just a DOD document, which is baffling considering how much has been made about the need for broader interagency coordination on space

18/ Finally, I'll just point out that this document is not actually a strategy. A strategy connects ways, ends and means and this document is long on ends, vague on ways, and includes nothing about means.

19/ Maybe all those details are tucked away in the classified appendix, which answers all of these questions and presents an amazingly coherent strategy. I kinda doubt that, but it's possible

20/ So in the end, what does this mean? We likely have a lot more arguments and paper shuffling to go before the US makes any sort of progress on actually meeting the challenges we face in space

21/ But hey, at least we have the SPACE FORCE!!!! /fin

22/ ADDENDUM - I've been informed that there is in fact a much longer classified version of the DSS that has all the "means" I said were missing. And this was just DOD b/c the 2018 National Space Strategy ( https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-unveiling-america-first-national-space-strategy/) was whole-of-govt