In June 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU.

Then a funny thing happened...

Quietly, with zero fanfare, the EU grew its trade in goods by more than the total value of all the trade it does with the UK.

In effect, it compensated fully for our departure.

https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/isdb_results/factsheets/country/details_australia_en.pdf

It's as if you used to work two jobs to make ends meet.

Then, knowing the second job could no longer be relied on, you negotiated raises at your main job, until your salary exceeded what you used to earn from both jobs combined.

Puts your second boss in a very weak position.

So when Brexiters claim the UK holds all the cards, what they really mean is we hold none.

The EU has already fully compensated for Brexit.

That doesn't mean they won't notice our departure. Nor will they stop trying to negotiate a decent deal.

But our leverage is gone.

Furthermore, in the 4 years since the referendum, the EU has concluded trade deals with Japan, Canada, the MERCOSUR block, Singapore, Mexico and Vietnam. That's over half a billion consumers.

We set off to run a marathon, but the goal is moving away faster than we're running.