USAF has realised there is a “Degraded readiness of the existing aerial refueling force, delays in KC46s, planned reductions of KC10s & KC135s ... indicate a critical and shortfall in taskable a/c ” 1/

And a report has been submitted to Congress

https://beta.sam.gov/opp/54df80f9174646a9bb25b7f38f03dba4/view#general

They see this shortfall for the next 5-7 years.

USAF sent a report to Congress outlining 5 separate potential courses of actions. 2/

1. Use contractors to fly USAF tankers.

This has potential legal and regulatory hurdles due to civilians flying US Goverment owned aircraft. Along with excess tankers being low. 3/

2. Sell or lease surplus tankers to contractors.

Many USAF tankers are at airplane graveyards, however, the status of them is unknown. 4/

3. Have contractors buy foreign tankers. Especially ones with BOOM.

The issue with this option could be spare parts / engineering / certification. Modifications would most likely need to be carried out on the BOOM. 5/

4. Have contractors convert airliners.

This, of course, would require those companies to buy suitable aircraft, modify them, and certify them to meet the service's standards. 6/

5. Have contractors buy commercials off the shelf tankers.

But the service still said estimated the average unit cost for these aircraft, which aerial refueling companies would have to pay up front, would be around $300 million each.