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Big moves in oil complex coming. Easy squeezy peezy.
Talking something along the lines of 42-44 handle TI
RDR -100 to -50
Confused about the move in diesel FP and GC/NYH outright 62g structure? Spreads?
Fine. My view - same as I alluded to months ago in crude when I spoke about dark pool commod, USO, JET, etc.
It's not hard to figure out how order flow is going to tilt once you get a finger on the pulse of the underlying... straightforward econs.
Barrels spoken for = future supply offline. Refiners, normally active supply, partook in said behavior, as they also allocated otherwise unused assets (storage) at spreads not seen in a dog's age.
Therefore, at the end of the day it is just a matter of optimization and then extrapolating future participation of various types of market participants.
If I'm getting paid 6 bananas to sit tight until date X in the future and I can pay 2 bananas now to replace current spot commitments... what will I ever do? Why sell out for 2 bananas when I am getting paid 6 to sit on my ass.
Same old same old. Until the market starts paying you to release those barrels - think transition from winter to spring last year at tale end of winter grade F gasoline, when F2 stock got pulled into winter blending, it is going to be bid.
That's it. That's why one guy in GC 62g window has been buying every single barrel for the last ... 3 months? ish?
Whether you like him or not, smart dude. Hard to bet against. Especially with the size he can swing/move.
Whether you like him or not, smart dude. Hard to bet against. Especially with the size he can swing/move.
Think I'm wrong? Don't like what I'm saying? Grand - exit door is to the left.
