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RBBC is not fun for fantasy. The Eagles RB’s were not fun for fantasy until one point of the season, and that’s because of Miles Sanders. Today, we are going to be diving into why I believe Miles broke the RBBC in PHI and taken his place as a FF RB1.
#Fantasy Football
1/17
#Fantasy Football
1/17
When l look into Miles the first thing I see if the 52% snap rate in 19. It shows that he barely saw the field half snaps, and that isn’t too encouraging for a young RB in a RBBC. Upon swimming a bit deeper, you’ll find that this snap rate is actually deceiving you, dont let it.
From wks 11-16, Sanders was RB3 in PPR. That’s end of season + playoffs for fantasy. Sanders won people leagues last season, and he’s just getting started. He saw almost 50% of his carries wks 11-16. We will look at stats in these weeks towards the end of this thread.
Let’s look at rushing stats. Miles averaged 5.8 yards per touch, which is outstanding. Not only that, but he rushed for almost 1k yards with seeing only 52% of snaps and less than 40% of team rush attempts. When the attempts came, the impact increased accordingly.
In 4 games w/ 15+ rushes, Miles averaged 18.5 FPPG, good enough for the 8th highest average among RB’s in 2019. That’s his first few games as the RB1 of the Eagles, there’s only room to grow and with an incredible line (even with Brooks injury), Sanders is trending upwards.
Brandon Brooks getting injured hurts the Eagles a ton, but they have able bodies to throw into that hole. Either Driscoll or Prince Taga-Wonogho (both rookies) could slide in, and although not as impactful, the unit would not fall apart if they had to use rookies as 1yr stopgap.
What should/will overcome the injury, the boost in carries Miles Sanders should see. Jordan Howard (119 carries!!!) is in Miami, and the Eagles didn’t sign any RB competition. Boston Scott remains in town, but Scott compliments Sanders more than threatens his value.
If the Eagles have 119 carries to go around, you could expect Miles to get even 80 more of those, leaving 39 to Scott and he’d have had 250+ rush attempts while Scott would have 100. There will be carries to go around, and we saw that once Miles took over.
Let’s go to receiving. Sanders lead PHI in deep receiving yards. That’s not saying much, as the WR core was garbage scraps, but it’s impressive for rookie RB. What says more though is his 50 catches on 63 targets for 509 yards through the air. I LOVE that.
What makes me believe receiving volume is sustainable is his 1.8 aDOT. That means he is getting targeted 1.8 yards on average, but his yards per catch stat is over 8. He’s creating 6+ yards per catch on average. Turning dump offs into solid gains - great for FF.
Even seeing barely half of snaps, Miles commanded a 10% target share for PHI in ‘19. That is impressive any way that you slice it. Sanders is going to be a consistent receiving back. Once we get to wk 11-16 stats (after taking over), you’ll see an increase in targets as well.
We’ve arrived at Redzone! Miles finished 25th in NFL in RZ rushes with 25, Howard wasn’t far behind with 22. With Howard gone and no comp. brought in, Sanders will see lions share of RZ touches as he is much more suitable for RZ usage than Boston Scott is.
Beyond redzone carries, let’s look at goal line carries. Sanders had 6 goal line carries, and Howard had 6 as well. It wouldn’t be unexpected for him to get 4-5 of those carries, increasing scoring opportunities in nearly double. The touches will be there. One more thing...
From wks 13-16, Miles got 13 of his 25 redzone attempts. That’s over 50% of his RZ attempts in the last 4 meaningful FF games of the szn. He was the bellcow when needed & he won leagues. Now we finally get to dive into his wk 11-16 stats, which will be cherry on top.
In weeks 11-16, Miles Sanders was 7th in rushing attempts and 8th in rushing yards. Both of those rankings were ahead of CMC. As said in previous tweet, 13 of 25 RZ rushes came weeks 13-16. The stats expand past more than just rushing though.
In these five weeks, Miles got 31 of 63 targets. Again, that is half! He was 7th in league in receptions, and 8th in receiving yards. In the five weeks we had an example of Sanders as a 3 down back in PHI, he was RB3 and got near 50% of his useful opportunities.
In conclusion, every single thing points Miles Sanders’ way to absolutely explode in 2020, and I would prefer to own a guy who may just be considered among the fantasy elite come 2021. I hope you guys enjoyed this deep dive, and I look forward to more in the future.
17/17
17/17
