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Budgeting on hope https://www.dawn.com/news/1564279
No revenue plans in budget. Finance Minister says in debate that hard to plan due to Covid19. Fair enough. So why is Covid19 missing from the budget? Keep it off the books, invoke it when you want. Is that the plan? There is a pattern.
No revenue plans in budget. Finance Minister says in debate that hard to plan due to Covid19. Fair enough. So why is Covid19 missing from the budget? Keep it off the books, invoke it when you want. Is that the plan? There is a pattern.
Many argued at the outset, including @KhurramHusain @asad_sayeed that revenue targets for 2019-20 were unrealistic. It was obvious pre-Covid19. 30 per cent gap in 9 months. Then came Covid19 and govt gets a waiver from one that matters - IMF.
Big fanfare around anti-corruption drive in mid-2019. Black money this, block transactions that. Real estate market collapsed. All knew this couldn't be done in a downturn, but they carried on. Then used Covid19 'construction package' to reverse it all without blinking an eye.
Budget-keeping will fail again, miserably, in 2020-21. Econ Survey growth argument based on IMF WEO which says global economy will grow (post-Covid) in 2021. Their calendar Jan-Dec. Ours Jul-Jun. IMF will review again Sep 2020, and likely downgrade for even Jan-Dec 20-21.
PM himself says Covid19 peak in Aug, so all of fiscal year 2020-21 is NOT post-Covid19. Perhaps the 'peak' will be later still. Will go again to IMF and plea we failed, due to Covid19. Sorry miss, dog ate my homework. Again!
Like it or not, IMF has smart people, they know budget-keeping WILL fail. Why do they put up with blatant non-truths? Crux of #PTIMF.
#PTIMF. IMF. How much more power can you enjoy in a large country, a possible giant, a potential 'mischief-maker', in a powerhouse region? So cheaply? Not even a political fallout. PTI: How much more power can you cede to stay in office? Eager fallguys for other power centres.
Growth under #PTIMF? IMF don't do growth, they do stabilization. In Pakistan they probably don't care if we never stabilize and always remain under some control. Lesson of history. To use IMF do your own growth thinking and bargain hard.
PTI all aggression towards parties, no evidence yet of ability/willingness to hard bargain. Skilled at shifting responsibility moving on. Corruption. Parties. Provinces. Covid19. Jahalat. Can this aid growth? Maybe, if pivoted to hardball. qadam baRhao IK hum peechhay haiN 
