The perplexing thing is that both Putin and Xi had their best years from 2013 to 2016 - not under Trump, who certainly has little or none of his predecessor’s principled opposition to authoritarian regimes. Analysts should reflect on this

Last couple of years have in fact been rather difficult and painful for both Russia and China

In 2015 the US was being kicked around like a football in Syria and Kerry was flying to Moscow every two weeks to beg for one concession or other. The years since have been dour for Russia - just beaten soundly in Libya, for example

As for China, things started to go very wrong in 2017 - and Chinese foreign policy has been struggling ever since https://www.politico.eu/article/how-china-bungled-its-coming-out-party/

Do Putin and Xi miss Obama? You bet they do

Is the improvement in America’s position due to Trump? No, but he helped in some ways, most of them unbeknownst to him. He certainly reinvigorated the alliance with Turkey and Turkey became a nightmare for Putin. On China things are even subtler and more complicated...

By unsettling the transpacific economic relationship, he forced China to increase its power projection elsewhere, creating an immediate backlash

Is Trump better than Obama? Maybe not, but recent years do show rather conclusively that balance of power is better as a grand strategy for America than liberal internationalism (whatever liberal internationalism is or means: a separate discussion)

A continuation of the Obama policy for two more years could have had dramatic consequences for US power. In the MENA region, Obama was interested in containing Turkey, leaving Russia alone. In just two years Putin would have become the de facto overlord from Syria to Lybia

In Asia, China would have had time to solidify the Belt and Road more slowly if economic relations with the US continued to follow the “rules of economic integration and cooperation.” In two or three years the main countries in the region would have been captured or coopted. END