Here goes .. https://twitter.com/CestMoiz/status/1272894257725087746
This news first broke at about 1pm on 16 June.
Now that in itself is a very interesting.
The Govt of India chose to wait for nearly 16 hours to make the report of the incident public.
I had to pend my lunch break waiting for that briefing.
Alas, it never came!
This was really interesting.
Because till that time, the Indian Govt had not said anything about casualties on the Chinese side.
To top it up, Shri Hu seemed a bit 'subdued' from his characteristic bombast of recent days - calling for sanity to prevail, of all things!
Ok, 'plea' might be something that some folks may not agree with, so let me call it a 'request' instead.
They were willing to engage India towards de-escalation
It was clear that the Chinese were unwilling to listen to reason.
The MEA chose to lay the blame squarely on China.
This was also the first official statement from India saying PLA too suffered casualties, btw
Let it suffice to say that this 'violent' faceoff has been far too spectacular to simply wish away.
It just cannot be.
This one too is not much different from that attack. The sheer anger that it has generated means that the GOI cannot NOT retaliate. https://twitter.com/CestMoiz/status/1096091855509483520
So no, it wasn't a surprise that Prime Minister Modi said what he said this afternoon.
The Prime Minister saying those words means that back-channels to seek any mutually agreed way out of this mess.
Of course, as I said before, it is far too big to ignore altogether.
Of course, a hardened Indian stand doesn't suit the Chinese plan of just browbeating the Indian Army without having to actually fight them man to man, right? https://twitter.com/CestMoiz/status/1272900028244398080
Of course, the Global Times once again recommenced its campaign of 'terrorizing' India with..
Yup, very professionally made videos.
But a 'photogenic' army and an effective army are two different things no?
Wrote a blog on that some years ago. Do read! https://cestmoizblog.com/2017/08/27/peoples-liberation-army-a-history-of-valour/
Blogged about the Myths of PLA some days ago (Link). Now continuing from there. Huge parades, shiny ‘toys’, rows and rows of it. The President, or as he would like to be addressed – The Cha…https://cestmoizblog.com/2017/08/27/peoples-liberation-army-a-history-of-valour/
This is what I wish to devote some time on.
One thing is for sure - the way the Prime Minster and the External Affairs Minister have spoken, something will most likely happen - something very visible.
At the very least, I feel there is some sort of economic retaliation coming up against China.
Let me delve on that for a moment, before moving ahead.
So economic retaliation does make a lot of sense. After all, China stands to lose much much more than India.
What I am more interested in is how China takes economic sanctions from India, if it happens.
How they react will be really interesting to see, even if these are merely pinpricks compared to what the USA is doing with them.
With USA it can still be justified - it gives them a sense of having 'arrived' when the sole superpower is fighting an economic war with them.
Will this induce China to mellow down their military stand on the LAC?
I'd say no.
The sheer ego of the commies that occupy Tibet will prevent them from accepting such 'humiliation', that too at the hands of a supposedly 'inferior' neighbour.
In fact, economic measures might actually exacerbate the military situation on the LAC.
So, how might that pan out?
Till the time the LAC provocations were limited to face-offs, it didn't really matter how many troops were amassed behind, so long as you could maintain numerical superiority at the point of the faceoff.
In such a scenario, a LOT will depend upon how many troops can China build up opposite Ladakh. What also has a bearing on this is how many troops can China actually spare for this contingency, given the mess they ..
Remember, there are THREE aircraft carriers of the US Navy patrolling the South China Sea and thereabouts!
So coming back to Ladakh.
Can they build up numerical superiority to actually militarily enforce their claims?
Remember, the Indian EAM said it was a pre-meditated attack by China on night of 15 June.
YET, the PLA suffered fatal and non-fatal casualties to the tune of 40+.
Some 'pre-meditation', this, huh?
What is to say that a military clash, IF it comes, will stay localized to Ladakh?
Surprised that no one is yet talking about this, atleast none that I came across on my TL.
That includes the case of Coco Islands as well, doesn't it?
Feel free to mull over it for a moment before moving ahead.
Can they really afford a shooting match at this time on a border that is about as far as it can be from where they face their biggest challenges?
Heck, the Chinese have just given us a beautiful example of that in the Galwan River area over the past days and weeks.
But when it comes to de-escalation, things are not so simple.
Especially when you DON'T want to 'lose face'.
Especially when there has been such a provocation.
Will the Chinese agree to a de-escalation wherein India gets even a 'notion of victory'?
I'd say, no.
The CCP will HAVE to be 'victorious', whatever may be the case.
They just cannot be seen to be weak.
So brace yourselves, folks. The coming days promise to be really interesting indeed, to say the least.
But come it surely will.
The first steps are likely to be economic.
Military steps, much needed, if they indeed happen, might come later.
So this tweet generated quite an interesting discussion on my mentions yesterday. Even though the circumstances regarding the WHO meet have changed by now, yet I will take some time to take this ch…https://cestmoizblog.com/2020/05/18/india-taiwan-relationship-time-for-a-reset/
The thing is that the wheels of history seem to be moving faster and faster with each passing day.
Brace yourselves, it will be nothing short of a roller-coaster ride!
In the end, I'll just leave this tweet here.