How Arsenal can win against Man City at the Etihad.

A thread:

Tomorrow Arsenal travel to the Etihad to face Manchester City, one of the hardest fixtures of the season. For Arsenal, this game in hand is an opportunity to gain points on rivals and almost a ‘free hit’ with very few expecting anything from the game.

In this thread I will:
• Discuss how City tactically set-up, and how this can be countered.
• Highlight City’s key players.
• Analyse how and when City score goals, and the best way to prevent this.

I will then look at:
• Potential Arsenal systems to counter City’s approach.
• Highlight Arsenal’s key players for the game.
• My prediction of how the game will go.

1. HOW THEY PLAY

Whilst City have countless options for personnel, the system they play is generally quite fixed. A 433 with Rodri sitting as the deepest midfielder. They play typical Guardiola possession football with an avg of 66% (1st itl) and 601 passes pg (1st itl).

They also lead the league table charts in; big chances created (78), SoT/90 (6.9) and GpG (2.4).

Only once this season have City not had a larger share of possession than the opponent [Wolves 3-2 City, Ederson red 12’]. Against City Arsenal will need to accept that they will...

have less of the ball and make use when they do have it.

Another characteristic of Guardiola’s City is the intense high press. City have the 3rd most final third pressures in the league but the 20th most in the middle and defensive third, showing how high up the pitch they play.

Due to this, I believe the most effective set-up to have success against this, is a tight compact defensive block with an explosive counter using pace.

This is supported by the teams City have lost to this season all being particularly effective counter attackers:

Despite seemingly being far more beatable this season, City have actually only had an inferior xG in 2 games this season, against Wolves [2.68-1.48] with Ederson getting sent off early and United [1.36-0.75].
They’ve also had the lowest xGA [27.87] in the league overall.

To summarise, City will give you very little of the ball and few opportunities and it is incredibly important that when the ball is won it is used correctly and efficiently. City rarely concede more than 1 xG of > 20% in a game, so these chances must be taken.

2. KEY PLAYERS

Playing deepest in their midfield and conducting the play will likely be new signing Rodri. With the 2nd most passes pg and a 92.2% success rate Rodri rarely gives the ball away, and given space everything will come through him. To nullify City’s effectiveness in

possession it is important someone plays close to Rodri to prevent his ability to control the game from the base of the midfield.

The other and obvious dangerman for City is Kevin De Bruyne. By all accounts the best player in the PL with the most KP/90 [3.7], BCC [23],

assists [16] and so on. In the last meeting KDB scored 2 with his hattrick only denied by an outstanding Leno save. Preventing KDB from being effective is far easier said than done, he plays inside off the right and is deceivingly quick with outstanding movement.

As it would take an essay to explain how to prevent KDB I will use this article that breaks down just how you could achieve nullifying one of the very best in the world, for those interested. https://statsbomb.com/2019/09/how-do-you-stop-kevin-de-bruyne/

3. WEAKNESSES

Despite just how good Man City are and can be, they do have weaknesses that can be exploited. Defensively there are fragilities and whilst Laporte is widely seen as the 2nd best CB itl, his partner is far from it and next to him Mendy is far from reliable...

with Walker and Ederson also struggling to recreate form seen from them in previous seasons. A battle I believe will be particularly interesting is Nicolas Pepe against Mendy, a player who has managed to get the better of even the best defenders this season with his dribbling.

In terms of when City tend to concede they have a high proportion of GA from the 15-30th minute, and in the final 15 of the game. With a surprising 42% of home goals conceded between 15 and 30 mins after they ease off the initial storm which Arsenal will need to weather.

4. POTENTIAL SYSTEMS

Out of the following ways we could set up: 442, 4312, 4231 and 433, my 2 preferences are either 442 or 433. When playing Madrid in the Champions League this season away from home, City adopted a similar 442 style in the press and ended up 2-1 victors

in a game they were seen as underdogs, a similar style deployed by Arsenal could work.

Despite this, personally I would go for a simple 433, a formation our players should be more familiar with and I believe the most effective way to nullify the threats City possess.

5. KEY BATTLES

Following on from this, are the players that will be vital in the game to ensure the system is deployed effectively.

The LCM position is vital in containing the creativity from both Mahrez and De Bruyne down the right hand side. For me Torreira is our most

defensively competent midfielder who has the capability to track and follow the runs from De Bruyne and double up on Mahrez defensively.

On the other side of midfield I would suggest a player just as athletic in Guendouzi, his role in the system would be to get as close to

Rodri as possible and leave him with little time to make passes and control play, with his cynical side a useful attribute here. In addition to this having the mobility of both next to Xhaka is important to win the midfield battle and give him the ability to progress from deep.

Finally, despite Nketiah’s success in recent friendlies and outstanding pressing ability I think that Lacazette needs to start. Whilst his away record is nothing short of awful, his ability to turn up in big games will be needed and the impact of playing away may not be the same.

6. CONCLUSION

All in all I think fans need to be realistic, this is the hardest game of the season and our squad is miles off City in terms of ability. This game is a free hit and any result would be outstanding, the performance will be far more important than the result for me.

The most important games in our challenge for top 5 are yet to come and if an on-form City turn up, no matter how well we play we will struggle. My personal prediction is that City will win 2-0 with too much quality, I just hope we don’t create our own downfall.

END OF THREAD.

This is my first proper thread I’ve done, it is quite waffly and I’ll try and be more concise in future. Constructive criticism very welcome & likes/rt’s appreciated as per.

Nah tbf, I predicted a 2-0 City and I don’t think we’d have done that badly had Luiz not single handedly lost us the game

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