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Hey, has NBA Twitter ever discussed whether Jordan or LeBron was better? Lol.
This thread contributes to the discussion by examining the quality of MJ's teammates. (I'll examine LBJ's mates later.)
This thread also shows how simplified and wrong the "narrative" usually is.
1/x
This thread contributes to the discussion by examining the quality of MJ's teammates. (I'll examine LBJ's mates later.)
This thread also shows how simplified and wrong the "narrative" usually is.
1/x
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2/x
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2/x
An influential but inaccurate narrative is: "MJ was a selfish player. But he learned how to 'win' after watching the Celtics and Pistons beat the Bulls."
3/x
3/x
The reality: Jordan played as well/better in 1987-1990 with no rings than he played in 1991-93/1996-98 when he won six rings.
What actually changed, especially beginning in 1991, was how good his teammates were and how well they played.
4/x
What actually changed, especially beginning in 1991, was how good his teammates were and how well they played.
4/x
Below are MJ's mates' stats and MJ's stats from MJ's full seasons. Champ years are highlighted in yellow.
MJ's 1992-98 stats were slightly worse than 1987-90.
But MJ's mates stats were below average 1985-90 to above average. To give context, 15.0 PER & .100 WS is average.
5/x
MJ's 1992-98 stats were slightly worse than 1987-90.
But MJ's mates stats were below average 1985-90 to above average. To give context, 15.0 PER & .100 WS is average.
5/x
In 1989, MJ had 20 WS; his mates had 26.
In 1996, MJ had 20 WS; his mates had 55!
MJ played consistently, declining slightly. So it's silly to "blame" him for the Bulls losing in the POs in the 1980s and "credit" him in 1990s.
6/x
In 1996, MJ had 20 WS; his mates had 55!
MJ played consistently, declining slightly. So it's silly to "blame" him for the Bulls losing in the POs in the 1980s and "credit" him in 1990s.
6/x
MJ's best mate was Pippen, an All-NBA player.
Armstrong, Williams, Rodman, Kerr, Harper were all ave or above.
Grant, an underrated player, was above 17.5 PER, 1991-93, including 20.6 PER and .237 (!) WS/48 in 1992.
And Kukoc's offensive stats were similar to Pippen's!
7/x
Armstrong, Williams, Rodman, Kerr, Harper were all ave or above.
Grant, an underrated player, was above 17.5 PER, 1991-93, including 20.6 PER and .237 (!) WS/48 in 1992.
And Kukoc's offensive stats were similar to Pippen's!
7/x
(Pippen was also a great defensive player.)
A couple of interesting things:
MJ's mates dipped in 1993. We think of the Bulls dominating, but 1993 was a bit of struggle.
MJ's Wizards teammates in 2002 & 2003 were as good as his Bulls mates, 1985-90.
8/x
A couple of interesting things:
MJ's mates dipped in 1993. We think of the Bulls dominating, but 1993 was a bit of struggle.
MJ's Wizards teammates in 2002 & 2003 were as good as his Bulls mates, 1985-90.
8/x
Yesterday, I examined the regular-season advanced stats of Jordan and his teammates. Today, I'll examine LeBron's and his mates' RS advanced stats.
9/x
9/x
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The "narrative" on LBJ's career seems to be:
"Young LeBron carried mediocre Cavs teams, helping them overachieve. Then, he joined a superteam ("the Heatles"), which underachieved. He then rejoined the Cavs, with two quality players who were often injured."
Let's examine it.
"Young LeBron carried mediocre Cavs teams, helping them overachieve. Then, he joined a superteam ("the Heatles"), which underachieved. He then rejoined the Cavs, with two quality players who were often injured."
Let's examine it.
As a reminder, the trend of MJ's mates' stats was up, up, up to 1991, then plateauing until 1998.
(The stats of MJ's mates on the 2002-2003 Wizards mates were very similar to those of his late-1980s Bulls mates, which was a little surprising.)
Adv stats of MJ & mates.
12/x
(The stats of MJ's mates on the 2002-2003 Wizards mates were very similar to those of his late-1980s Bulls mates, which was a little surprising.)
Adv stats of MJ & mates.
12/x
Below is LBJ's mates' RS stats (left) & LBJ's stats (right). Heat years are highlighted in yellow.
The stats of LBJ's Heat mates' is generally higher than the Cavs' mates.
Despite the "superteam" narrative, however, we don't see a huge jump in stats with the Heat.
13/x
The stats of LBJ's Heat mates' is generally higher than the Cavs' mates.
Despite the "superteam" narrative, however, we don't see a huge jump in stats with the Heat.
13/x
Let's examine the Heat vs. Cav mates more closely. The next chart sorts LBJ's mates by WS/48.
(I use per WS/48 MP rather than straight WS because 2012 and 2020 were shortened seasons).
14/x
(I use per WS/48 MP rather than straight WS because 2012 and 2020 were shortened seasons).
14/x
In WS/48, Heat mates are good but not outliers, averaging 6th of 17, or 65 percentile.
Year: Rank of all 17 years:
2011: 2nd
2013: 4th
2012: 8th
2014: 10th
15/x
Year: Rank of all 17 years:
2011: 2nd
2013: 4th
2012: 8th
2014: 10th
15/x
VORP numbers of Heat mates is similar to WS/48 numbers (1st, 5th, 7th, 10th).
PER numbers of Heat mates is higher than WS/48 & VORP (3rd, 4th, 5th, 12th). But PER is more closely packed overall, so precise ranking is not super meaningful.
16/x
PER numbers of Heat mates is higher than WS/48 & VORP (3rd, 4th, 5th, 12th). But PER is more closely packed overall, so precise ranking is not super meaningful.
16/x
Observations:
LBJ's early Cavs mates were good (not 2008). 2009 & 2010 mates were about as good as Heat mates'.
Ilgauskas, Boozer, Gooden always good PER & WS, similar to Heat's Bosh & better than Allen's.
Maybe LBJ didn't have to leave Cleveland to win his first ring!
17/
LBJ's early Cavs mates were good (not 2008). 2009 & 2010 mates were about as good as Heat mates'.
Ilgauskas, Boozer, Gooden always good PER & WS, similar to Heat's Bosh & better than Allen's.
Maybe LBJ didn't have to leave Cleveland to win his first ring!
17/
More observations
2015, 16, 17 Cavs were about as good in RS adv stats as Heat.
2018 team was one of LBJ's worst. It is truly remarkable that 2018 Cavs made the Finals. We don't talk as much about that as we should.
2019 Lakers were also one of his mate's worst seasons.
18/
2015, 16, 17 Cavs were about as good in RS adv stats as Heat.
2018 team was one of LBJ's worst. It is truly remarkable that 2018 Cavs made the Finals. We don't talk as much about that as we should.
2019 Lakers were also one of his mate's worst seasons.
18/
2020 Lakers mates' possibly the best stats of all of LBJ's 17 years of mates.
Anthony Davis 2020 has the best adv stats of any LBJ mate. Wade 2011-14 has the next four best seasons. He's followed by Irving 2017 & Love 2018.
Coming soon ... comparison of LBJ's with MJ's mates!
Anthony Davis 2020 has the best adv stats of any LBJ mate. Wade 2011-14 has the next four best seasons. He's followed by Irving 2017 & Love 2018.
Coming soon ... comparison of LBJ's with MJ's mates!
The first two parts of this thread examined the quality of of Jordan's and LeBron's mates' regular-season stats.
Today, I'll compare their teammates directly with each other.
20/x
Today, I'll compare their teammates directly with each other.
20/x
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When evaluating, I prefer stats (hard numbers) to accolades (opinions) like All-NBA honors and All-Star appearances.
But accolades do provide insight into the conventional narrative of a player's quality. And accolades are chosen by expert voters, after all.
21/x
But accolades do provide insight into the conventional narrative of a player's quality. And accolades are chosen by expert voters, after all.
21/x
Despite the great teams Jordan played on, he had only one mate earn All-NBA or All-Star honors: Pippen, who did each 6 times.
But the numbers show that Grant, Rodman, and (maybe??) Kukoc were All-Star worthy.
Here is MJ's mates accolades record:
22/x
But the numbers show that Grant, Rodman, and (maybe??) Kukoc were All-Star worthy.
Here is MJ's mates accolades record:
22/x
As with MJ's mates, LeBron's mates earned relatively few All-NBA honors: Wade three times and Irving once. (LBJ's teammate Anthony Davis will probably make All-NBA for 2020. AD's 2020 All-Star appearance is already included.)
But LBJ's mates did better in All-Star games.
23/x
But LBJ's mates did better in All-Star games.
23/x
MJ & LBJ each played on great teams. But their mates earned the FEWEST accolades of any mates of GOAT-level players.
The chart below is sorted by % of All-NBA player per year.
24/x
The chart below is sorted by % of All-NBA player per year.
24/x
Back to stats
WS/48 over .100 (average)
MJ's mates: 6x in 15 seasons. All 6 were champ years
LBJ: 11 in 17. Made Finals in 8 of 11
PER over 15 (average)/14
MJ: 3 over 15; plus 5 over 14
LBJ: 0 over 15; 7 over 14
VORP
MJ: 4 over 10; plus 4 over 5
LBJ: 1 over 10; plus 10 over 5
WS/48 over .100 (average)
MJ's mates: 6x in 15 seasons. All 6 were champ years
LBJ: 11 in 17. Made Finals in 8 of 11
PER over 15 (average)/14
MJ: 3 over 15; plus 5 over 14
LBJ: 0 over 15; 7 over 14
VORP
MJ: 4 over 10; plus 4 over 5
LBJ: 1 over 10; plus 10 over 5
The chart below sorts all of MJ's and LBJ's mates' season by WS/48. (MJ's mates highlighted in RED; LBJ's in GOLD.)
As you can see, MJ's mates dominated among both the best mates' seasons and the worst. By contrast, LBJ's mates tended toward the middle.
26/x
As you can see, MJ's mates dominated among both the best mates' seasons and the worst. By contrast, LBJ's mates tended toward the middle.
26/x
MJ's mates were bifurcated. MJ had 5 great mates' seasons and 9 mediocre mates seasons. Only 1993 would be considered in a middle category of good/very good.
It's interesting to note that MJ's best mates' WS/48 seasons aside from champ years were his two years with Wizards!
27/
It's interesting to note that MJ's best mates' WS/48 seasons aside from champ years were his two years with Wizards!
27/
This chart below examines just the Finals' years for each player. It's also sorted by WS/48.
MJ's mates rank 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 of 15 Finals, average rank of 4.7.
5 of top 7 are MJ's mates.
By contrast, LBJ's mates rank a much lower average of 10.2 of 15.
28/x
MJ's mates rank 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 of 15 Finals, average rank of 4.7.
5 of top 7 are MJ's mates.
By contrast, LBJ's mates rank a much lower average of 10.2 of 15.
28/x
Put another way, Jordan NEVER had a team of mates in the Finals under .118 WS/48.
By contrast, LeBron made SIX Finals with mates at .118 or under!
29/x
By contrast, LeBron made SIX Finals with mates at .118 or under!
29/x
This chart is of all years, except LBJ's 2020 since there's been no playoffs yet.
Highlighting:
RED is MJ championships
GOLD is LBJ champs
YELLOW is LBJ Finals losses
30/x
Highlighting:
RED is MJ championships
GOLD is LBJ champs
YELLOW is LBJ Finals losses
30/x
Observations:
When MJ or LBJ had mates over .100 WS/48 (average), they made Finals in 14 of 16 years. When these guys had good teammates, they won!
LBJ also made Finals in 2018 with below-average mates.
MJ's mates 6 best seasons: 6 rings.
LBJ's mates 10 best: 8 Finals and 3 rings
When MJ or LBJ had mates over .100 WS/48 (average), they made Finals in 14 of 16 years. When these guys had good teammates, they won!
LBJ also made Finals in 2018 with below-average mates.
MJ's mates 6 best seasons: 6 rings.
LBJ's mates 10 best: 8 Finals and 3 rings
Any truth to these *narratives*:
"MJ was a selfish loser who learned how to win."
"LBJ was a choker."
MJ "loser to winner" narrative:
Very doubtful: MJ always won rings with great teams & always didn't with mediocre.
32/x
"MJ was a selfish loser who learned how to win."
"LBJ was a choker."
MJ "loser to winner" narrative:
Very doubtful: MJ always won rings with great teams & always didn't with mediocre.
32/x
However, aside from 1993, we don't have any years when MJ had good but not great mates, i.e., .100-.125 WS/48 mates.
By contrast, LBJ had 7 of those seasons.
So we don't really know whether MJ would've won w/ the types of mates that LBJ took to the Finals but often lost with.
By contrast, LBJ had 7 of those seasons.
So we don't really know whether MJ would've won w/ the types of mates that LBJ took to the Finals but often lost with.
"LBJ was a choker" narrative:
False. LBJ never had 1990s Bulls-level mates, so he never "choked with an all-time great team."
34/x
False. LBJ never had 1990s Bulls-level mates, so he never "choked with an all-time great team."
34/x
Examining LBJ's 5 very-good mates years, .120-.137 WS/48:
2009: Lost ECF
2010: Lost EC Semi-Finals
2011: Lost Finals
2013: Won Finals
2016: Won Finals
14-3 PO series record. That's pretty good; it's not choking. But 2009, 2010, & 2011 can legitimately be viewed as underachieving
2009: Lost ECF
2010: Lost EC Semi-Finals
2011: Lost Finals
2013: Won Finals
2016: Won Finals
14-3 PO series record. That's pretty good; it's not choking. But 2009, 2010, & 2011 can legitimately be viewed as underachieving
How about LBJ's 5 *good* mates years, .100-.120 WS/48?
This is where LBJ really shines! He takes *just good* mates (plus the BELOW-average 2018 Cavs) to the Finals.
2007: Lost Finals
2012: Won champ
2014: Lost Finals
2015: Lost Finals
2017: Lost Finals
16-4 PO series record.
This is where LBJ really shines! He takes *just good* mates (plus the BELOW-average 2018 Cavs) to the Finals.
2007: Lost Finals
2012: Won champ
2014: Lost Finals
2015: Lost Finals
2017: Lost Finals
16-4 PO series record.
I have some other MJ & LBJ teammate data that I may share in the future.
37/x
37/x
One of this posts in this thread is inaccurate for MJ's mates' RS advanced stats. The trend was NOT up, up, up until 1991.
Instead, WS/48, VORP, & PER were pretty flat, 1985-90, and then big leap in 1991, which was maintained.
Instead, WS/48, VORP, & PER were pretty flat, 1985-90, and then big leap in 1991, which was maintained.
While I'm at it, here's LeBron's teammates RS advanced stats in graph form, too.
You can see that's there not a huge difference between LBJ's mates: Cavs 2009-11, Heat 2011-14, Cavs 2015-16 (and maybe even 2017).
You can see that's there not a huge difference between LBJ's mates: Cavs 2009-11, Heat 2011-14, Cavs 2015-16 (and maybe even 2017).
Might as well combine/compare data from MJ's and LBJ's mates RS advanced stats.
To this point in this thread, I've examined and compared the regular-season advanced stats of Jordan's & LeBron's teammates.
This thread continues by examining the PLAYOFF advanced stats of JORDAN'S TEAMMATES.
41/x
This thread continues by examining the PLAYOFF advanced stats of JORDAN'S TEAMMATES.
41/x
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42/x
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42/x
MJ's mates in the POs.
As in the regular season. MJ's mates in the POs made a huge statistical jump from 1985-90 to 1991-on.
In fact, the PO difference between 1985-90 & 1991-on is MORE dramatic than the RS one.
44/x
As in the regular season. MJ's mates in the POs made a huge statistical jump from 1985-90 to 1991-on.
In fact, the PO difference between 1985-90 & 1991-on is MORE dramatic than the RS one.
44/x
.100 WS/48 & 15.0 PER are average.
Champ years highlighted in yellow.
Observations:
PER: MJ's mates in PO were around/below replacement level--far below average--every year 1985-90!
WS/48: MJ's mates far below average every year though 1990. 1986 mates had NEGATIVE Win Shares!
Champ years highlighted in yellow.
Observations:
PER: MJ's mates in PO were around/below replacement level--far below average--every year 1985-90!
WS/48: MJ's mates far below average every year though 1990. 1986 mates had NEGATIVE Win Shares!
In short, no player, not even peak MJ, could have beaten talented teams like the late 1980s Celtics and Pistons with the supporting cast that MJ had with 1985-90 Bulls.
46/x
46/x
MJ's mates playoff advanced stats sorted highest to lowest by WS/48. (Champ years highlighted.)
Champ years are all at top; 1985-90 are all at bottom. 1995 is lower than all champ years.
MJ's mates played well in every champ. MJ was the leader, but he didn't win alone.
45/x
Champ years are all at top; 1985-90 are all at bottom. 1995 is lower than all champ years.
MJ's mates played well in every champ. MJ was the leader, but he didn't win alone.
45/x
1995 is an interesting year. The *narrative* (I think) is that MJ let his mates down that year after he came back from playing baseball. There is truth to this: His numbers did dip.
At the same time, MJ's mates played slightly worse in 1995 than in 1991-93 & 1996-98.
46/x
At the same time, MJ's mates played slightly worse in 1995 than in 1991-93 & 1996-98.
46/x
