Folks from outside Kentucky who think that McGrath is the best bet to beat McConnell: You're wrong, and it's because you don't understand Kentucky. 1/

Kentucky has more registered democrats that they have registered republicans (about 48% to 43%). Our state has fought many bloody battles over workers’ rights, and the experience has left our long-exploited coal communities extremely poor AND pro-worker. 2/

We (as a state, especially in the east) rely heavily on government assistance, both for food and medical care, because it takes a long time to build those communities back up from what they’ve become, and no one has committed the resources necessary to do so. 3/

As a result, lots of the folks who skew hard right on social issues skew hard left on economic ones – hence the longtime family-wide alignment with the democrats, even though plenty of folks registered D often vote R. 4/

Outsiders see McGrath as a center-left candidate who won’t be too unpalatable to the majority of Kentuckians. She sees herself this way; here ads are all "left? ME?!"
But McGrath is the EXACT WRONG COMBINATION: she leans to the left socially, and to the right economically. 5/

There might be folks who don't want to hear about racial injustice or transgender rights but they're willing to abide that sort of thing IF the person advocating them is also swinging hard at Wall Street and the coal companies that have squandered their pension funds. 6/

These folks want Medicare for all, a higher minimum wage, and relief benefits that don't require that they spend half their week hoop jumping. Social issues are going to be a hindrance on ANY non-Republican vote for a lot of 'em, but left-leaning economic populism is a swayer. 7/

With McGrath, you've got a candidate that will appeal to NONE of these folks. She's a centrist on economic issues and opposes Medicare for all. The only carrot she might offer folks who otherwise skew right is entirely absent. 8/

Do I hope she'd win a general election against McConnell? Of course I do. But I suspect her campaign would follow the path its already followed: trying to win over voters by convincing them that her politics aren't that much different from his. 9/

Just like four years ago, McGrath will be cornered into sheepishly and shamefully admitting support for marginalized folks and policies that help them, and will likely disavow any connection with national figures. This'll make her look 100% insincere. 10/

Being afraid to openly champion any policies she worries might run her afoul of right-leaning voters, she likely won't champion anything. Her entire campaign will be built on not being Mitch McConnell (it already is). 11/

We've seen that strategy before, and it has NEVER WORKED.
What MIGHT work is someone out there swinging for the fences, explaining with passion and fire how, logistically, he is specifically fighting for the Kentuckians who need it the most. I think that person is Booker. 12/

Anyway, I figured that those of y'all outside our flawed but glorious commonwealth might not understand why Kentuckians aren't necessarily rallying to McGrath yet considering you've been hearing about her in national news for a while. 13/

Now, I haven't read any studies to support or refute what I'm saying. I'm basing this wholly off my understanding of my neighbors & family and what I hear them talking about, and this is just a primer for friends. If you don't know me, know I'm half idiot before citing me.
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