Anybody done work on #HelloFresh ( #hfgx:GER) stock?

66% grower at 21x FCF, and total category dominance w no viable competition (except churn), run by a "baby Bezos"? #HellFresh

"Despite the heightened economic uncertainty...we increased our expected group constant currency growth from previously 22% to 27% to now 40% to 55%."

https://www.nny360.com/communitynews/business/meal-kits-are-the-next-best-thing/article_d2a29965-7f49-5d03-95d4-1e6f88389f31.html

Demand was so high in March, #HelloFresh had to turn down customers. Sales growth expected higher in Q2 than 66% in Q1. Only $ZM maybe a bigger Covid beneficiary. LOL.

"Able to capture not only the retail margin, like other e-commerce companies, but also the brand's margin and the wholesale margin all at once. We should be able to produce twice AEBITDA margin of e-commerce peers due to the vertical integration."

A short thesis from jan 2018 predicted unraveling, yet the opposite happened - accellerated growth and gushing fcf. #HelloFresh

"We are tackling that huge space (home cooked) with very limited competition globally."

After a decent runup, a JPM analyst downgrates #HFG (because indigestion?).

The company responds that Q2 will significantly exceed expectations.
http://mobile.dgap.de/dgap/News/adhoc/hellofresh-erwartet-fuer-einen-umsatz-und-ein-bereinigtes-ebitda-aebitda-deutlich-ueber-der-markterwartung-und-erhoeht-die-prognose-fuer-das-geschaeftsjahr/?newsID=1368571

Analysts diet is no good?

Somehow reminds me of $amzn, $nflx and $tsla, in early days universally derided for “unsustainable” business models :-(

Compare “terrible business” #HelloFresh that grows >60% YOY w operating leverage on display/high cash profits to cash-burn “rule of 40” SaaS “darlings” & ilk w zero actual evidence of any operating leverage. #LOL