As with aviation accidents, there’s isn’t normally one blame factor or issue that causes them.

Normally a chain of events which if one were changed then the accident wouldn’t have happened.

Known as the Swiss cheese. I think this can apply To the UKs response.

Thread 1/n

First one, stopping it from arriving here in the first place.

This gives an indication of when the virus arrived. Essentially after feb half term.

So borders would have needed to be closed by 23rd Feb.

Swiss cheese 1. (2/n) https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1270452785193062407?s=20

SAGE up to 13th were advising not to lockdown because once released it would lead to a second wave.

Also noted doubling time of 5-6 days not 2-3 which was more probable.

As noted on the FT chart.

Slow lockdown Swiss cheese 2. (3/n)

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1270763431159828480?s=20

Lack of testing. On 12th U.K. announced they’d stop contract tracing due to lack of capacity.

Great strides were made in April but needed to be done in Feb, like Germany detailed here by @jackfdickens

Swiss cheese 3 (4/n)

https://reaction.life/why-is-germany-able-to-test-for-coronavirus-so-much-more-than-the-uk/

Seeding in care homes.

@PaulBrandITV has done some excellent work on the travesty in care homes.

Freeing up beds in hospitals due to imperials ICU calculations published 16th March. Consequences infected patients were likely transferred to care homes.

Swiss cheese 4 (5/n)

These imo from research seem to be the main ones.

By removing just one of these Swiss cheeses it would have probably led to a significant reduction in the UKs impact.

Be interested to see if you think there are any more?

(6/n)

When the inevitable public inquiry comes, I do hope that these Swiss cheeses aren’t used as blame but like in aviation used to learn and improve the response for future pandemics.

I hope you enjoyed the thread.

#covid19 #ukcoronavirus

Thread ENDs